Israeli sources quoted this Friday by the Institute for the Study of War assure that the government of Netanyahu is seriously considering launching a ground attack on southern Lebanon, under the pretext of preventing the systematic bombing of northern Israel so that the inhabitants of these areas can return home. Forty-eight hours after the massive attack on Hezbollah leaders and collaborators with the explosion of their locators and walkie talkiesThe Middle East is a pressure cooker waiting to explode.
It appears that Israel is allowing some time to pass before the raid to see if the leader of the terrorist group, Hassan Nasrallahyields to their demands and orders an end to rocket fire on Jewish territory. However, there is no sign of this happening: Nasrallah stood in central Beirut on Thursday to assure his supporters that Hezbollah had no intention of surrendering and that attacks against the “invading state” would continue. On Friday, words gave way to action, with up to 130 projectiles fired across the border, according to the Israel Defense Forces.
Israel’s response was swift and more than energetic: several missiles fell on the southern suburbs of Dahieh, more precisely in the densely populated neighborhood of Jamous, collapsing two buildings and killing at least a dozen people and wounding nearly a hundred. This is the third Israeli attack on the Lebanese capital since the escalation of the conflict following the Hamas massacre on October 7.
In January, A guided bombing killed Saleh-el-Arouri, one of Hamas’ military leadersIn July, a similar operation led to the assassination of Fu’ad Shukr, Nasrallah’s military equivalent within the terrorist organization.
Target: Ibrahim “The Efficient” Aqil
On this occasion, the target of the attack was Ibrahim Aqil, nicknamed “The Efficient”, one of the most experienced leaders of Hezbollah, already involved in the attack of October 23, 1983 which killed 241 American soldiers and 58 French in Beirut and that of April 18 of the same year against the American embassy, with 73 dead. These attacks They landed him on the U.S. government’s most wanted list.a list he has been on for forty years. Any information leading to his location was valued at seven million dollars.
Although it is not known whether Aqil is alive or dead – the Israeli military assumes the latter, but Hezbollah has not yet confirmed it – the choice is significant. The importance of Aqil, a man with four decades of experience in terrorist actions, is incalculable, even if he probably does not occupy a specific position in Hezbollah’s organizational chart. A veteran of the bloodiest Islamic Jihad of the 1980s, Aqil was Fu’ad Shukr’s advisor until his death and was responsible for overseeing actions against Israel in the Galilee region..
His assassination is a huge blow to an already shaken organization. Israel has not only killed and wounded hundreds of senior Hezbollah commanders, but has also dealt a major blow to the group’s communications infrastructure. Aqil’s assassination affects this sense of chaos, increases the state of shock, and sends another powerful message in terms of military intelligence: Someone from Mossad is so deeply embedded in Hezbollah that all these actions could have been carried out in four days after so many years of futile attempts. attempts.
US disengages and calls for negotiations
Aqil’s possible death is also a nod to the United States. Netanyahu knows that Biden has been angry with him for a long time and that everything he does goes against the fundamental principle that governs American foreign policy in the Middle East: seek de-escalation through negotiation. That is why he did not inform the White House about the pager operation and has not yet done so with the Beirut attack. But in both cases, according to American sources, the consequences and intentions were informed after the fact.
All of Israel’s actions invite us to think about preparing for a full-scale conflict in which Iran has promised to help Hezbollah if Lebanon is attacked. Nothing could harm Kamala Harris’ electoral aspirations more than an open war: the economic consequences would be brutal, but also military, since the United States has troops spread throughout the area that will undoubtedly be targets for the Axis of the Iranian resistance.
NOW, How can we condemn an attack in which one of the country’s greatest enemies died? Netanyahu knows that the White House cannot say anything about Aqil’s death when Aqil is responsible for the deaths of so many Americans. Indeed, when asked about the matter, John Kirby, press secretary of the Defense Ministry, preferred not to comment and referred the media to the version given by the IDF, without wanting to argue over the fact that he had not received prior notification. “This is not unusual,” Kirby said.
Iran’s role in the conflict
The war seems to be getting closer every day and it is clear that Israel will not warn anyone in advance so that its intentions are not disclosed. The Hebrew secret service accused Iran on Friday of planning the assassination of Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Prime Minister Netanyahu as revenge for the death of Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas, in Tehran on July 31.
According to the Shin Bet, Israel’s national security agency, the plans were detected and deactivated instantly, but the leak to the press at that time clearly indicates that Iran is an active party to the conflict. There is no doubt that, as happened on April 13, Israel Considers Possibility of Iranian Attack, Even if It’s Just a Testimony.
What is not so clear is whether the response will be so lukewarm. Israel knows that with Russia’s help, Iran is developing its nuclear program and cannot allow its greatest enemy to possess the atomic bomb.
Their guerrillas have been defeated, with a serious internal problem for years, solved only by continued repression against women and youth, a very aging leadership and a prime minister who recently came to power after the death of Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash. Iran exudes weakness everywhere. Waiting for her to consolidate her alliances with Russia and perhaps China is not the best idea… and a US administration with Trump at its head would certainly have no objection to a direct attack. Probably not with Harris either.
