A study prepared by experts from the CESM Medical Union and members of the Faculty of Medicine of the Miguel Hernández University (UMH) of Elche rejects the need to open new medical schools. According to this study, What is lacking is not more university places, but rather loyalty among doctors who graduate and exceed the residency period to avoid the mass emigration that occurs to other countries of the European Union.
According to the study, in 10 years, in 2034, when medical students who now begin their training in this university degree will complete it, The surplus of graduates compared to available places will be at least 539 new doctors based both on expected retirements reaching age 67 and on the possible creation of new positions due to the increase in the ratio of doctors per capita.
As the secretary general of the State Doctors’ Union (CESM), Víctor Pedrera, one of its authors, explained in relation to the same study, the issue is not to increase university places, but rather promote the retention of new doctors.
On this issue, Víctor Pedrera offers important information: the number of doctors who have left the system in recent years. Spain’s primary care places exceed 3,000. There is, however, a deficit.
The entry of a new doctor into the labor market in Spain takes place after that person has completed six years of medical degree and specialization as a resident internal physician (MIR). That is to say, between 10 and 11 years of training. A model that has transformed the new Spanish doctors into highly trained professionals, regarded throughout the spectrum of the European Union.
According to the aforementioned study, in the province of Alicante, 226 new places are offered for the medical degree, of which 86 correspond to the University of Alicante and 140 to the UMHThis figure will probably increase in the coming years.
In the case of CastellonBetween public and private universities, there will be 165 new graduates per year. While in Valencia, among its three faculties, the number rises to 600A total of 991 new aspiring doctors begin their studies each year.
In relation to this figure, we find the needs for new doctors in the territory, based on the number of retirements that occur each year and the increasing staff needs. This last figure is determined by population growth.
Given that the training of new students lasts 10 years, as has been said, the planning that begins in 2024 must, in turn, be based on the aforementioned parameters planned for 2034. Because it will be this last year that the students who now they begin their university career will be available in the labor market.
Reduction in retirements in 2034
According to the aforementioned study, which uses as a reference the data of the Order of Physicians regarding the members of the public and private health system, in the case of the province of Alicante, in 2034 there will be a decrease in the number of retirements.
So, in 2029, if all doctors who reach the age of 67 retire, 152 retirements are expected, while the number of graduates will be 226. In other words, there will be more than 74 seats.
Between 2030 and 2034, the number of retirees will be on average 149 doctors, except for the last year, which will be reduced to 73. And this last figure is the one that will remain in the following years after 2034. According to these data, over the entire period 2029-2034, there will be a maximum of 817 retirements and 1,356 new medical graduates..
With these figures also, the medical students who now begin their studies in the Valencian Community and who will complete their training in 2034 will represent a surplus of 539 doctors which, according to the above-mentioned study, will not be able to fully absorb the growth in staff numbers, if it occurs.
With the particularity that the surplus will only be 539 doctors if they all retire at 67, a more than doubtful circumstance, since the majority of doctors They extend their activity up to 70 years. And also, in these 10 years, those that go from 2024 to 2034, the medical faculties do not increase the number of places. Because if one of the two conditions is not met, the surplus of doctors will exceed those of 539 previously mentioned.
According to the above-mentioned study, in these circumstances and even if the ratio of doctors per inhabitant increases, the system will not be able to absorb the surplusThat is to say, their natural outlet will be to look for other countries where they can carry out their activity.
