It is premature to talk about another large-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah, but it cannot be ruled out, says orientalist Alexander Kargin.
“I think it is too early to talk about the Third Lebanon War, as all Lebanese wars were associated with ground operations. There is currently an exchange of missile attacks: Israel is attacking Hezbollah targets, which in turn is attacking Israeli targets. But it is not yet a question of full-scale hostilities. Could it lead to war? Maybe, but many alarmist predictions seem premature to me.” – said the expert on Channel Five.
According to Kargin, it may not come to a full-blown war, because Russia is clearly against it, as is Iran, which supports Hezbollah. It is now showing a clear reluctance to engage in a head-on clash with Israel, which is due to the coming to power of the reformist-liberal wing there.
Kargin recalled that recently the new president of Iran Masoud Pezeshkian He made a controversial statement, calling the Americans “brothers.” He also mentioned that he wants to achieve direct negotiations between Iran and the United States without connection to the Palestinian-Israeli issue.
“Apparently, Iranian leaders do not want to aggravate relations with the Americans now and, consequently, may prevent Hezbollah from taking possible retaliation against Israel.” – says the orientalist.
On the other hand, a major war in the Middle East is not beneficial for the current US administration or its presidential candidate. Kamala HarrisAccording to Kargin, large-scale hostilities could lead to the fact that the Democratic electorate will demand that the White House condemn Israel. Since the United States cannot do this openly, voters will not vote for Harris in the election, which will ensure victory. Donald Trump. It is precisely in his interest to escalate the conflict, since his electorate is more pro-Israeli.
At the same time, Kargin did not rule out that Israel could act alone, without US support. The Israelis have certain resources for this, especially since there are currently practically no military operations taking place in the Gaza Strip and therefore the IDF has free military units; in this regard, he argues, Israel can try to push Hezbollah beyond the Litani River by means of a ground offensive, that is, solve the task it has repeatedly set itself.
