The break between President Havier Miley and his vice -president Victoria Vililaruel after the permission of the parliamentary session in the Senate, which contributed to the approval of laws contrary to the ruling party, was marked by a turning point. In the dialogue with Radio Rivadavia, political consultant Jorge Jacobbe diagnosed the struggle, assessed the influence on public opinion and expected possible scenarios. For Jacobbe, what was previously an union with unstable balances, has become an irreversible fracture that forces each part to revise its place on the board.
Jorge Jacobbe defined the situation between Havier Mailey and Victoria Villarruel as a political divorce, difficult for returning. In her opinion, the Vice President made a decision that distance her from the hard core of the ruling party when they came across the two most influential figures in the image in the government: President and Minister of Security Patricia Bulrich.
According to the consultant, Vililaruel acted in accordance with the perception of the fact that public opinion about him is up to this point: a strong and bold figure. This profile, he said, was backed up by qualitative studies that placed it in the same symbolic group as other women with recognition in politics, such as Bullrich or Christina Kirschner among their supporters.
Jacobbe said that in the first months of management, Vililaruel came even the best image than Miley himself. However, when internal friction began, and the president strengthened his attacks, the positive image of the vice president was reduced to half. But he explained that this failure did not imply a fall in a negative perception: his image passed from positive to regular.
The analyst used a graphic metaphor to describe this transformation. He explained that the voter who appreciated her did not condemn her and did not reject her, but moved her from the place of attachment to the reserve: “As if Miley told his audience:“ They are versed in Vililaruel de la Fellador and took her. ” But the audience pulled him out of the refrigerator and placed him in Frisa. ”
For Jacobbe, this change leaves open opportunities that the vice president can be “consumed” or “used” politically later. According to his reading, the electorate did not destroy his figure, but decided to pause it, waiting for a crisis. From there two possible ways were obtained: that Vililaruel is faced with the Libertarian electorate openly and divided, or that he is trying to overcome the conflict without definitely, waiting for public opinion to give him a new role.
As for the reaction of Miley, Jacobbe appreciated that his confrontation style continues to work politically, although with the nuances. He confirmed that the president continues to receive support among those who do not identify themselves with kirhnerism, and that the forms are more rude, which are still considered a secondary problem, while the expectation of economic improvement remains.
As for the composition of the President’s electoral support, Dzhikobbe divided him into two segments. On the one hand, 30% of voters who accepted it as a flag from social networks, with most men under the age of 51 years. On the other hand, an additional 25%that came from the electorate of Patricia Bullrich, with most elderly women. While the first protects him by condemnation, the latter accompanies him as a circumstance, provided that they believe that they take them “to the best place”.
In connection with Willauruel Jacobbe, he avoided confirmation that he had abandoned himself in a new political career, but said that he had entered a new stage. He noted that the public knowledge of his figure grew that he was no longer perceived as vice -president of loyal, and that now we must wait to measure what the real consequences of his movement will be.
Finally, he believed that the break was hardly repaired. Although Milei at another time recounted political relations with such figures as Bulrich or Maurisio Macri, Jacobbe said that in this case the president received betrayal, and that he was a red line for him. He recalled that Miley could break or convert in accordance with cases, but when he interprets that they betrayed him, there is no possible return.
In his balance sheet, the consultant determined that there is “two miles”: one who is faced with the restriction, and the other who breaks without returning. In the case of Willauruel, the conflict rose to the point when the relationship became unstable. According to Jacobbe, this will be a public opinion that decides whether Vililaruel can use the conflict or will be frozen in a political freezer.