Japan is facing the biggest shortage in decades of a key staple of its cuisine: rice. An explosive combination of severe weather disrupting harvests and increased tourism has left the country grappling with shortages for months.
Already in the last three years, demand has outstripped production of table rice, the variety used in most Japanese dishes, but it was in the summer of 2024 that the imbalance was most visible, reaching the lowest stocks in 20 years, according to data from the US Department of Agriculture, which analyzes this market.
It is common in August that Supermarkets will run out of white riceeven stores limit purchases to one bag per person.
One explanation for this scenario is the climate. Several heat waves linked to droughts in the second half of the year have had a negative impact on harvests and, in addition, this year citizens have stored more rice in anticipation of the typhoon season and in response to the news of a major earthquake that could hit the country.
Another factor in the shortage is the decline in rice producers: as workers retire, there is no generational change to fill positions, leaving a clear shortage of manpower in the profession.
The massive influx of tourists is the cherry on the cake. The Japanese food craze, one of the big draws for visitors, has increased demand for sushi and other rice dishes.
Japan’s ‘isolated’ rice economy
Added to all this are the rice policies country, which remains the main underlying factor contributing to the decline in overall supply. As Joseph Glauber, senior researcher at the International Food Policy Research Institute, points out: CNBC“The Japanese rice economy remains largely isolated from the global market.”
Japan imposes a 778% tariff on imported rice to protect its producers. The country has committed to importing a minimum of 682,000 tonnes of rice per year to meet its World Trade Organization obligations, as rice is largely isolated from Japanese consumers and is used primarily for processing and animal feed.
In addition, between 2014 and 2022, Japan’s rice exports increased sixfoldreaching almost 30,000 tonnes.
Regarding the price, 16,133 yen (112.67 dollars) per 60 kg was reached in August, 3% more than the previous month and 5% more than at the beginning of the year. In fact, the increase in rice prices – along with chocolate – was one of the foods that contributed most to the increase in general inflation in Japan in August (+2.8%).
