After the end of the inflation floor, 2% in May with 1.5%, the government now sets another task: keep prices controlled and avoid a possible new shock, which can complicate the economic plan and its electoral strategy for the legislative body.
It is very important for this to know what is happening in gondolas with prices for food and drinks, an object that has a large weight in the overall calculation, and this can lead to failures in the sixth month of the year.
In this scenarios, two of the most listened consultants recently published their weekly surveys, updated data from the unit, which in May grew by only 0.5%, which implied one of the minor variations last month. Will this trend be supported in June?
President Javier Miley gives that yes, and even one of his closest ministers was recommended to predict 0% by the end of the year.
“Toto (Kaputo) and I risk the risk of risking, and our hypothesis is that inflation will die in the middle of next year, but our colossus, a giant (Federico) Sturzenegger, said that it will be before,” the president said for dinner in the collection.
This projection, he explained, feeds on the May data of inflation, which in the retail sales accounted for 1.5%, and for the wholesale seller -0.3%, which encourages numbers after the flexibility of the exchange rate in mid -April and the correction of the official dollar upward, which came with it.
June inflation: How do food prices increase, did you grow again or fall?
A few days later, without changing the price of the field in the fourth week of June, LCG recorded a weekly increase by an average of 0.1% in food and drinks.
Thus, the average inflation of four weeks accelerated 0.2 percentage points, rising to 2.1%, while the measure against the ends was 1.8%.
Analyzing the product for the product, you raise meat and vegetables that they promoted weekly inflation, partially compensating for other appropriate items, such as bakeries and dairy products.
“Products without prices continue to represent 70% of the basket,” they said a consultant.
As for monthly incidence, still with “sensitive differences” between categories, the meat explained 44% of the month inflation.
Another of the consultants who presented the data repeated that retail prices freed up a few days ago, in the third week of June and determined that the food consumed within the framework of the house registered an increase of 0.3%, “noting a slight acceleration by 0.2 hours with respect to the previous week.”
“With these data, inflation in food consumed in the house will be 1.7%in June. The inclusion of an increase in food consumed outside the house (1.8%) is 1.7%, ”they said.
Thinking about the general projection, from a consultant led by Marina, he gave a stroke, they evaluate that June inflation will be 2.0% per month.
“Data is still preliminary and subject to modifications. The fuel growth obtained as a result of the increase in the price of raw oil in the framework of the Israeli Iranian conflict had a limited impact on the inflation of the week, while the YPF-shred competitor in the framework of market autonomous production, in principle, growth for July, ”they explained.
“In addition, food inflation was slightly lower than expected, which contributed to the fact that the indicator corresponds to predicted last week,” the analysis concluded.
What happened to meat, fruits and drinks
- Meat: meat registered variation by 0.6% per week, which caused an increase in the price of chicken, which was 1.8% higher than the previous week, prepared by an increase in fresh and frozen birds (1.9%). The fish contributed at the same time by 0.9%. Meanwhile, the vaccine meat scored by 0.3%, where the rear contractions were released with an increase of 0.7%, while the pig was observed by 0.4%.
- Fruits and vegetables: in the third week of the month, vegetables registered a drop by 0.9% caused by the category of “other fresh and frozen vegetables”, which were 1.4% below the previous week. Fruits, on the other hand, experienced an increase of only 0.1%. Despite the fall of citrus fruits (-0.2%), an increase in Apple (0.5%) compensated for a decrease.
- Drinks and infusions: the category emphasized and gained an increase of 1.3%, due to the increase in the price of beer (3.4%), packed with water (3.0%), other alcoholic beverages (2.9%) and soda (1.4%). Thus, so far this year this subject accumulates an increase of 19.6%in accordance with medium food
On average, in June, food prices accumulate 1.5% per month. These data include the bass resistance of May (0.3%).
In addition, in Echogue, they received a decrease in the dispersion of changes in food prices with an increase, which has grown to 4.1% (cocoa and derivatives) and a decrease, which reached 1.9% (liquid milk).
How will inflation continue in 2025, according to the city of Hurus?
Those who participated in REM, according to estimates, faced with the end of the year, descending ways of monthly inflation both for the general level of IPC and the component of the nucleus.
The average value of analysts projects monthly inflation of 1.9% for June, 1.8% for July and 1.7 in August, which will be repeated in September and October, until it decreases to 1.6% in November.
As for the total amount of 2025, they installed an eight -year variation of 28.6%. This means a reduction in 3.2 percentage points in relation to the previous survey.
The average projection of analysts, although clearly reduced, does not see the rest of the year in monthly inflation of less than 1%, the figure with which they are excited in the executive branch.
