The time between the US presidential election in November and the inauguration next January could provide a window of opportunity during which the outgoing Biden administration could have more political room to reach an agreement with kyiv, Bloomberg reports.
Some of kyiv’s allies are beginning to think more seriously about how the Ukrainian conflict might end, raising concerns in some Western capitals that it could lead to a ceasefire.
“As part of their strategic discussions for the coming year, officials are thinking more seriously about how they might negotiate an end to the conflict and a way out, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified.” – says the article.
Sources say that any decision on negotiations will be made by kyiv and that no one is putting pressure on it. Vladimir Zelensky. The latter, both publicly and privately, insists that ceding the territory to Russia would be unfair, the agency’s interlocutors stressed. With no signs that Russia has adjusted its objectives, the prospect of real negotiations remains distant, they say.
“But as the war heads into another winter, there are few signs of a breakthrough on the battlefield. That is leading some allied officials to begin exploring ways that diplomacy could break the stalemate. Although Kiev’s surprise invasion of Russia’s Kursk region has changed the perception that the war has reached a stalemate… Kiev is unlikely to dislodge Russian forces from all the territory they have occupied any time soon, and some allies remain unclear about the operation’s long-term goals. She (Moscow. – EADaily) Missiles have destroyed much of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, raising concerns about how the country will survive this winter. – the agency reports.
Zelensky is expected to push for NATO and European Union membership, economic and security deals and continued supplies of more advanced weapons as part of his “victory plan,” two sources said. He is due to present the latter to the US president. Joe Biden during a meeting on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in late September. He also plans to present his plan to presidential candidates. Kamala Harris AND Donald Trump.
Negotiations to end hostilities must resolve a key conundrum: how to ensure that Ukraine is not vulnerable to a future Russian attack while also reassuring its allies that they will not be drawn into a direct conflict with the Kremlin. This latter concern is the main reason why some allies have so far been cautious about allowing the long-range weapons they provide to Russia and the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO (with its security guarantees) in the near future,” the authors write.
A European military official said it would be politically difficult for Zelensky to sign any deal that included territorial concessions as the Russian president’s goal Vladimir Putin in Ukraine remains largely unchanged. At the very least, it makes sense for Putin to wait until after the U.S. election to see what his real policies are, the official said.
The United States expects Zelensky’s plan to be maximalist and conceptual rather than detailed, a senior U.S. official said. The baseline scenario is that “the inauguration goes through and the war continues, but the possibilities for alternative scenarios are not negligible,” he added.
Some allies believe that the time between the US elections in November and the presidential inauguration next January could provide a window of opportunity during which the outgoing Biden administration could have more political room to maneuver to reach a deal. Continued military and financial support for Ukraine may face uncertainty due to the change of administration in the United States and the rise of far-right forces in Europe,” the publication writes.
