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Whether it is brave or reckless, decision of France President Emmanuel Macron to recognize Palestine as a state may have consequences in the future.
In a letter to Palestine President Mahmud Abbas, who also placed on the X (former Twitter) platform, the French president said that he would continue official recognition at the UN General Assembly in September. “France will be in favor of implementing the decision of the two states, Israel and Palestine, which will coexist with peace and security,” Macron wrote. “This is the only course that can correspond to legal expectations of both Israeli and Palestinians,” he added.
But what does the recognition of Palestine mean in practice? Why does it matter? And what can he follow?
What does recognition mean?
France is the strongest country in Europe, which announces its intention to recognize Palestine, joining the 147 countries that have already done this. At the same time, he will become the 12th European country, which officially recognizes the Palestinian state after Spain, Ireland, Sweden, Romania, Hungary and Bulgaria.
For most of these countries, recognition means the recognition of Palestinian sovereignty and independence within the boundaries of 1967 (that is, on the western bank, gas strip and East Jerusalem) and the establishment of complete diplomatic relations. Therefore, it is expected that France will accept the full Palestinian embassy.
Why does this (some) mean?
France has the largest Jewish population in Europe, as well as the largest Muslim population in Western Europe. As the founder of the European Union, its voice is especially important in Epirus and at the international level.
It is expected that the decision to recognize Palestine will increase pressure on Israel, at a time when more and more historians and lawyers characterize the war in the gas sector as “genocide”.
More than 100 international organizations, such as doctors without borders, Amnesty International and Oxfam, talked about vast hunger in gas. Nevertheless, humanitarian conditions will be difficult to improve, since negotiations on the ceasefire in Doha collapsed after the United States has gone on the grounds that Hamas does not negotiate “conscientious”.
“The recognition of France Palestine sends a message to Israel that he pays a political price for his actions in Gaza,” said Martin, the head of the European Analytical Center European project of the Middle East In Brussels. “It is also faced with the efforts of Israel to remove the prospect of the Palestinian state,” he added.
Although it is not expected that the step of Paris will have direct legal consequences – as the consequences for trade – can be used in future trials, or in the International Criminal Court, or in national courts.
Pressure towards the Allies
Observers believe that Macron hopes to push his European allies, such as the United Kingdom, Germany and Italy, to take a position and revive the decision of the two states. This structure, which was agreed by Oslo’s agreements in 1993, provides for the creation of the Palestinian state on the western coast and in gas with the capital of Eastern Jerusalem.
Nevertheless, Israel – like its main ally, the USA – no longer supports this decision. The regulated activities on the west coast intensified, which makes the creation of a stable Palestinian state practically impossible.
The recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel Donald Trump in 2017 and the transfer of the US Embassy from Tel Aviv also strengthened the executed ones.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio described Macron’s movements “irresponsible” and claimed that “he serves the propaganda of Hamas and undermines the world.”
On the contrary, several European governments, although they support the decision of the two states, stress that the recognition of Palestine should be made in the context of a comprehensive solution for the Middle East.
“We can no longer endure massacres and hunger,” said Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tayyani. “Italy supports the decision of the two states, but the recognition of Palestine should be accompanied by the recognition of Israel by the Palestinians.” It recalls that Palestinian power recognizes Israel, but not Hamas.
“We are not interested in victory over each other – we are interested in the world,” Tayyani said.
What is expected next?
According to analysts, Macron’s step is mainly symbolic and seeks to increase its international profile, but immediate changes are not expected in this area.
He independently described the President-Dia (Jupiterian), however, in the second and last semester, he focused mainly on foreign policy, leaving the internal management of his prime minister, who fights a huge financial deficit and a reaction to pension reform.
“The movement is important for French foreign policy, but not for the Palestinians,” said Maria Louise Franadapi, director of the Middle East and the African program in the Italian analytical center. Institute Affari InternationaliThe field “The advantage is mainly connected with France, especially for the countries of the world,” he added.
Analysts warn that there is a risk of spending a lot of diplomatic capital on the initiative, which is completely inadequate in the face of events on the field.
According to experts, an overview of European trade relations with Israel in accordance with the agreement on communication with Asrael will be more significant.
However, the European Union remains deeply divided. The EU Foreign Minister recently decided to postpone the adoption of a package of 10 proposals in order to respond to Israeli’s actions in a gas limited by the monitor of compliance with Tel Aviv for humanitarian aid.
The position of Germany
It is expected that the position of Germany, a country that is still guided by the so -called “Staatsraison” – will play a decisive role – historical responsibility to Israel from the Holocaust.
Until now, Germany is not going to follow the example of Macron. On Friday, the government representative Stefan Cornelius said that Berlin believes that the recognition of Palestine should be the “last stage” in the process of resolving the two states.
Nevertheless, he added that “the German government is ready to increase pressure”, if no progress is achieved to resolve the conflict.