And after more than 50 days of government in place, the President of the Republic, Emmanuel Macronturned to an old engine of French politics, an old-world type despised by the new politics of young boys, a lifelong right-winger, elegant, discreet and cold, to close the longest crisis of the entire Fifth Republic and appointed Prime Minister yesterday Michel Barnier.
It was him… or no one. And the political crisis caused by Macron’s ill-calculated early election decision could turn into a regime crisis. The resulting National Assembly includes three main blocs: the New Popular Front (socialists, communists, environmentalists and rebels) has 182 seats. Macron’s supporters, 168, and the far right and its allies, 158. The traditional right, 45. The Constitution of the Fifth Republic gives many powers to the president, including the power to appoint the Prime Minister. Whoever wants.
But the Prime Minister can be overthrown by a motion of censure, which, unlike in Spain, is not constructive. In other words, it is not associated with the name of an alternative head of government. That is why If the far right and the left vote together, they can bring down any prime minister..
The left declared itself the winner a few minutes after the polls closed through its leader, the tribune of the far left insoumise, Jean-Luc MélenchonThey demanded to govern, they even agreed on a candidate for Prime Minister, Lucie Castets, a senior official of the Paris city hall, socialist and politically virgin. Useless. The extreme right, the traditional right and the president’s supporters anticipated their desire to censor her jointly.
Macron let the Paris Olympics pass and declared a political truce. Taking advantage of the fact that the Constitution does not set any deadline, he wanted to give time to the left-wing coalition in the hope of breaking its unity. And to the center and the right to see if they were able to agree on a name, capable of breaking the unanimity of the left or winning the goodwill of the Marine Le Pen. He achieved neither.
Since the end of the Olympic Games, two names have been circulating: Bernard Cazeneuvelast (and brief) prime minister of the socialist president Francois Hollandesocialist critic of the New Popular Front. And the president of the Hauts-de-Seine region, Xavier Bertrandone of the surviving barons of the classical right. Le Pen recovered the black ball from both sides. Cazeneuve’s options failed because he did not even have the support of his former socialist colleagues. To Bertrand, for his declared animosity towards Le Pen and her party, which he still calls the “National Front”, today the National Rally (RN),
From the Elysée, the hypothesis of a technical government charged with governing lightly was explored until in July, Macron was able to dissolve the Assembly again, after the minimum of twelve months set by law. Sting.
And… There remained Barnier, a politician with the air of a manager, crowned with glory for having successfully negotiated Brexit on behalf of the European Union and its 27 states. That is to say, having kept the 27 united while the United Kingdom dissolved into successive government crises. His secret? “I was not aggressive in the negotiation. I did not put emotion. Nor passion. Facts, legal bases. That’s all.”he himself declared to The Figaro.
Attentive, elegant and a little distant. Discreet and consensual. Yesterday, he attended, imperturbable, with his white hair that gives him the air of a 73-year-old patrician, the exuberant farewell speech of the young prime minister. Gabriel Attal who has been in office for 8 months. The contrast between the two men in the courtyard of Matignon, the Prime Minister’s residence, at the time of the transfer of power, was clear.
Michel Barnier and Gabriel Attal, in the staging of the transfer of powers.
Reuters
He wanted to chair the Commission but the right preferred it Jean-Claude JunckerFive years later, Barnier did not meet the requirements. Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron had in mind: German, female, young. It is said that this did not really please the chancellor. Macron approached him to lead his European list in 2019 but he remained loyal to the right, his party, where he was always viewed with suspicion. Too consensual, too green, too pro-European.
“Old world,” Macron’s entourage used to say. And they were right about that. Barnier had a photo of the general in his office in Brussels. De Gaulle and the chancellor Adenauer by signing the Elysée Treaty, which gave legal form to the Franco-German axis, in 1963. “This photo decided my political commitment” declared ‘Le Parisien’.
Barnier was 14 when he put up posters of De Gaulle to whom Francois Mitterrand He ran for president in 1965. Hidden from his mother, a left-wing Christian socialist. And to compete with his history teacher who beat Mitterrand’s in the lead. Since then, Barnier has been a social Gaullist, a political species in danger of extinction: patriotic but pro-European, right-wing but concerned about social issues. Yesterday, he quoted De Gaulle at his inauguration.
He was the youngest member of the Assembly at 27 years old. A graduate of the École Supérieure de Commerce, he held several minor positions within the Government. But above all, he obtained his first elected position, councilor of the canton of Val de Isère, in his native Savoie, as he recalled yesterday.
At the age of 22, after completing his military service, he campaigned at the wheel of an old Citroën 2CV. He became friends with a legendary ski champion, Jean Claude Killy. Together, they left in 1981 for the 1992 Winter Olympics in Albertville. “The main thing in politics is to carry out a project, to raise the horizon” Barnier would say: “Michel understood that life was not just a media communication, but a methodical construction, like the mountaineer who climbs, step by step,” remembers his skier friend.
This success defined Barnier’s style and would shape his career. The young Gaullist was able to win the express support of the president, the socialist François Mitterrand. But this almost made him a traitor in the eyes of the party leader, Jacques ChiracMayor of Paris, who wanted the 1992 Summer Games to be held in Barcelona, for the French capital.
With Chirac at the Elysée, he will only be Minister Delegate for Europe, European Commissioner for Regional Policy and, finally, Minister of Foreign Affairs. He, who had previously been Minister of the Environment in the Balladur cabinet, knew that joining the clan counts for a lot.
He was warned of Barnier’s reputed coldness Rachida DatiToday, interim Minister of Culture, and a sulphurous rising star of the right in the 90s, “Barnier is neither likeable nor funny. He is rigid,” said his entourage. Nicolas Sarkozywho had appointed him Minister of Agriculture, had the idea of proposing an improbable Barnier-Dati tandem at the 2009 European Championships. The trick worked. The right achieved the best result in its history.
After this victory, he will be Commissioner for the Internal Market in the Commission chaired by the Portuguese. Durao Barroso. Without pain or glory. The media ignores it. The EPP prefers Juncker. The opportunity (and success) will then come to negotiate Brexit.
He put the style, the policy, on the solid basis of negotiation nourished by a team of 55 people, men and women by parity, 19 nationalities and 37 years old on average. Once the agreement was found, he showed temperance with his peers of the EPP: “You should never congratulate yourself on a divorce”. “He surprised the English. He did not wait impatiently, he listened to everyone. It’s true, violently effective”, dissects Killy in Le Parisien.
“Direct and honest, more European than French,” he judges with as much malice as accuracy. David Davis with whom he dealt when he was British Brexit Minister. Yesterday, in the courtyard of Matignon, he emphasized listening. You will need it. For the moment, Le Pen is reserving her opinion until she hears the general policy speech that Barnier is expected to deliver before the National Assembly. But it is obvious to me that he is not going to join the motion of censure that the left is preparing for him, hurt at being separated from a power that they believe is rightfully theirs.
For Barnier, this is a golden opportunity to end his political life, after the bitterness that the failure of the right-wing primaries must have meant for being its candidate in the 2022 presidential election, after finishing third. Eric Ciottitoday a right-wing MP allied with Le Pen and winner, Valerie Pecressewho, after suffering a historic defeat in the presidential elections (below 5%), returned to his winter quarters, the presidency of the Paris region.
Barnier campaigned on delaying retirement to 65 and cutting social spending costs, eliminating inefficiencies to balance public accounts and reduce taxes. Macron managed to force the French to retire at 64, cut taxes and… public spending has skyrocketed, post-covid. So Barnier’s first mission is the 2025 budget, while Brussels is struggling and demanding cuts.
However, the most controversial aspect of Barnier’s candidacy (a three- to five-year moratorium on new immigrants) may now give him an opportunity. Le Pen liked that music.
