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Matignon intends to increase taxes in 2025

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Matignon intends to increase taxes in 2025

After some hesitation in its communication, on the afternoon of Thursday, November 28, the government finally confirmed that it intends to increase taxes on the regulated tariff for the sale of electricity from 1Ahem February 2025, compared to that applied in 2024.

Enough to mitigate the drop in bills that is, however, expected due to the drop in electricity prices on the wholesale market. “I have decided not to raise taxes on electricity in the 2025 treasury bill”However, the Prime Minister, Michel Barnier, stated in the afternoon, during a long interview in the Figaro.

If the scenario transmitted by Matignon on Thursday night is confirmed, taxation will increase from one year to the next, as the previous executive had already foreseen. But it will not increase as much as the current Barnier government had predicted in October, when presenting its finance bill for 2025; which could now explain the Prime Minister’s equivocal phrase.

Read also | Article reserved for our subscribers. Budget 2025: electricity, an additional source of income in Bercy’s sights

According to Matignon’s plan, taxes will rise next year to 37.20 euros per megawatt hour (MWh), not including VAT on consumption. This is a jump of almost 54% compared to the current level, which is 24.16 euros.

The end of the “tariff shield”

Among the tax components, the main novelty is the old internal tax on final consumption of electricity (TICFE), now called the fraction collected on electricity. To justify this increase, the government highlights the end of the “tariff shield.”

Also read the analysis | Article reserved for our subscribers. Electricity: the threat of a counter-current tax increase

In 2022, in the face of the inflationary energy crisis, this aid system reduced the TICFE to 1 euro for individuals. At the beginning of 2024, this excise tax (an indirect tax) had increased to 21 euros. Then it was already planned to return it, between now and 2025, to the level prior to the inflation crisis. Or about 32 euros, if we include the old municipal and departmental taxes.

According to the scenario presented on Thursday, this fraction collected for electricity will finally be 29.98 euros next February, assuming that the VAT rate on the signing of a contract increases from 5.5% to 20%, to comply with European legislation.

In October, when presenting his finance bill for 2025, the executive considered for the first time a flexible sum of up to 50 euros for the ex-TICFE. The measure would have allowed at least 3,000 million euros of additional tax revenue for the State, compared to a special tax of 32 euros. Very unpopular, it was subject to an unfavorable vote in the National Assembly and the Senate, which does not prevent the Prime Minister from imposing it without a vote by resorting to article 49.3 of the Constitution.

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