Meteorologists warn that the Mediterranean remains “3ºC above average” and is a “gas can”

After the disaster that occurred in Spain two weeks ago, the arrival of a new DANA (Isolated High Level Depression) led administrations to take preventive measures. In certain municipalities of Malaga Some 4,000 people were expelled, while Tarragona And Valence Classes in educational centers were suspended this Wednesday.

The State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) has activated the red alert for torrential rain. In Malaga, the red alert is triggered by accumulated rain of 120 liters in 12 hours; In Tarragona the threshold is 180 liters and in Valencia it is expected that it could reach more than 180 liters in five hours.

This does not mean that this amount will decrease. In fact, the meteorologists consulted by EL ESPAÑOL suspect that the new DANA, which from this Thursday becomes an isolated cold storm (BFA), will not break the records recorded with the previous one. But you will also find the “gasoline can” that is the Mediterranean Sea at present.

Records for daily water surface temperatures were broken this year and last year. But the most worrying thing is that at the end of October warmer than normal.

No one is the same as another

For this reason, and continuing the comparison of the drum, the meteorologist of Weatherized Francisco Martin Leonbelieves that the current DANA will have “less fuel” than the previous one. Despite this, Mediterranean waters continue to be “3ºC above average”.

Added to this anomaly is the frequency with which these two active DANAs occurred. “These events rarely happen simultaneously,” says Martín León, who has worked for Aemet for more than three decades. The meteorologist Eltiempo.es Mar Gomez He also doesn’t remember a similar situation.

The main reason is that the polar jet “is very wavy” for this time of year. In the case of the Peninsula, this undulation generated landslides which became, in turn, the arrival of DANA.

Less movement, more danger

Although, as experts recognize, “no DANA is identical to another“. It is true that the last two were located in the Gulf of Cádiz. But just as the first remained static for almost a week, the second has a more mobile character. And everything indicates that, due to maximum wind, it will head towards the Madeira region.

As meteorologist Samuel Biener assured this newspaper, a slower DANA would have had a potential as destructive as that of late October, since the waters of the Mediterranean are still very warm. Damage is also expected to be minor as any weather phenomena are the further away it is parked, the more dangerous it is.

In this sense, it will also be important that prevention systems are “oiled”, as Martín León values: “Policies have intensified and is becoming more and more alert“.

In addition to this improvement, the new DANA did not generate a secondary storm in the Mediterranean, as was the case for the previous one. This was the cause of unfavorable storms.

This also caused rainfall inland. In this case, and although there is a risk of flooding on the coast of Valencia, the largest accumulations will occur in “coastal towns, with boulevards very close to the coast”.

Who lights the drum

One of the dangers of this new DANA is that it has rained heavily relatively recently. “20 liters now could cause more damage than 100 liters at the end of October” warns Martín León.

Unlike the previous one, snowfall is expected in the Cantabrian and central system, because “they are accompanied by very cold air”.

What has changed little is in the “extra fuel“what has become of the Mediterranean, with temperatures above normal.

For Martín León, in fact, it is on this anomaly that attention should be paid, and not so much on the question of whether more or less DANA can be administered. “I prefer to talk about the fact that we have an increasingly doped Mediterranean. And who sets fire to ‘this drum’? It could be a DANA, but it could also be ‘another match’ which release all the energy accumulated in the sea“, he concludes.