The turning point of rigor has arrived. Four decades after the political turn imposed on François Mitterrand by the deterioration of economic indicators and attacks on the currency, France seems about to experience a similar inflection. No more “whatever it takes” and outright tax cuts. Priority is given to restoring public accounts, even if that means significantly increasing taxes and cutting certain expenses. This is the movement that is materialized through the 2025 budget, presented on Thursday, October 10, by the new Minister of the Economy, Antoine Armand, and his colleague in charge of the budget, Laurent Saint-Martin. With a cocktail of measures estimated by the government at 2% of the gross domestic product (GDP) in one year, a record level, exactly the same as in 1983.
About the program: 8 billion euros taken from large companies, 2 billion from very high incomes, a six-month freeze on pensions paid to retirees, 4 billion in additional contributions to social security, a tax on the buyback of stocks, a tightening of the automobile sector. -taxes, but also a slowdown in public spending. And, perhaps, a first reduction in the number of state officials. Around 2,200 positions would be eliminated in 2025 within the State and its operators. All these measures should allow us to regain control of the public deficit, to reduce it to 5% of GDP in 2025, compared to the 6.1% expected in 2024. However, in an opinion issued on Thursday, the Higher Council of Public Finances estimates that this key objective presents a “high risk” could not be achieved, since the project is based on numerous optimistic assumptions.
“Obviously it will be difficult, recognizes Antoine Armand, whose baptism of fire is. This means changing our practices. » The first difficulty will be to get Parliament to validate this project. Deputies and senators accepted that the government sent them its text ten days late with respect to the legal schedule. But the National Assembly exam, which begins on Friday, October 11, promises to be “nightmarish”some in the government anticipate.
Eric Coquerel, president (La France insoumise) of the Assembly’s finance committee, intends to rewrite the copy “austeritarian” delivered by Michel Barnier, to prepare a budget “PFN [Nouveau Front populaire] compatible “, with “More tax justice and more income for the State”. The right and several Macronists are very angry against the tax increases. Above all, the absence of an absolute majority in the National Assembly makes the adoption of the text, whether deeply modified or not, very uncertain. Will the new Prime Minister want to approve himself vigorously, using article 49.3 of the Constitution (which allows a text to be adopted without a vote in the Assembly), as former Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne had done ten times a year ago? Will you try to overcome the obstacle by resorting to recipes?
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