Michel Barnier slipped it with a delicate euphemism in his interview with The Sunday Tribune, published on Saturday, October 5: the programming laws already approved to guarantee the increase of various budgets – army, police, justice, etc. – for several years “will generally be preserved.” A polite way of saying that these increasingly numerous texts will be reviewed and, in some cases, significantly corrected. The deficit slide appears so severe that even these final budget sanctuaries are no longer safe.
Concerned ministers and elected officials are already stepping up to preserve what can be preserved. Thus, Gabriel Attal warned his successor that the Macronist deputies will be “vigilant” on compliance with programming laws, “particularly for defense and interior.” “In my constituency, the government committed to investing in two new gendarmerie brigades to fight domestic violence. says Michaël Taverne, deputy of the National Rally of the North. Neither of them have seen the light of day yet. Despite the Home Office planning law which I voted for in 2023, I have serious fears about realizing these promises. »
On paper, sectoral programming laws are of obvious interest. By fixing the evolution of state spending over three, four or five years in this or that area, they correct the usual myopia of governments and place public action on a more relevant horizon than the strict annual budget exercise. This is the reason why, after the programming laws approved since 1960 in military matters, other multi-annual texts have flourished in recent years.
Seven missions covered
Currently, seven general budget missions are “covered in whole or in part by a programming law”, according to the Court of Auditors. In addition to defense, it involves public aid for development, ecology, justice and even security. Agriculture, energy and climate may soon be added to this, if the pending texts that Michel Barnier promised to relaunch are successful.
In total, 27% of state spending was already protected in 2023 by these programming laws. According to the Court of Auditors, the proportion should increase to 31% in 2027. According to military planning laws, the defense budget must, for example, double between 2017 and 2030.
This is where the problem lies. Because setting such enormous amounts in advance limits the room for maneuver in the rest of the budget. “Multi-annual laws require an even stricter reduction of other expenditures, particularly social expenditures, if we want to reduce the public deficit,” has been alarmed for months by Pierre Moscovici, the first president of the Court of Auditors. “Yes, these laws contribute significantly to the increase in state spending and we have difficulty absorbing everything that is planned.” We confirmed it in Bercy.
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