“Without metals, there is no transition. » Industrialists in the mining sector like to repeat this slogan (“no metals, no transition,” in French) to emphasize how so-called “critical” metals and minerals are the driving force of the energy transition. Copper, cobalt, lithium, graphite, nickel, manganese, rare earths… These raw materials are, in fact, essential for the manufacture of electric batteries, solar panels, wind turbines or electrolyzers.
But the availability of these resources worries mining companies. In a study made public on October 22, the consulting firm EY explains that the fear of shortages, due to the lack of new deposits, appears as the fourth major cause for concern, behind financing conditions, environmental management and geopolitics. This criterion includes for the first time the list of “Ten main risks and opportunities for the mining sector” established each year by EY among global mining players. “This is a great novelty and a high risk also shared by international institutions and researchers”explains to World Moez Ajmi, head of extractive activities for France, the Maghreb and French-speaking Africa at EY.
All metals are affected, but the situation is especially worrying, according to EY, for copper, essential for the electrification of uses and all transition technologies. To achieve carbon neutrality, the consultancy calculated that more than 40 million tons of copper would have to be produced per year in 2050, compared to 25 million today. Such an increase would require putting nearly 40 copper mines into operation within ten years. Gold, “In the last ten years, only 14 new deposits have been identified, compared to 75 between 2003 and 2014”Ajmi emphasizes.
Despite the risks of shortages, mining groups are struggling to launch new projects and the low prices of these raw materials tend to slow down investments. “Mining exploration is increasingly expensive, because the cheapest and most productive deposits have already been discovered and are already being exploited”explains Mr. Ajmi. The fall in average concentration forces companies to collect more minerals to obtain the same amount of metal and to manage greater quantities of waste. So many complications that impact production costs: according to EY, research costs have increased, for example, from $91 (85 euros) per ton of copper in 2011 to more than $800 in 2020.
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