It is often said in Congress that he PNV It is something like the “canary in the mine”, due to its ability to detect before others changes in position, weaknesses in governments, cracks to be crossed and twists and turns in agreements.
Also to know which political movements are good and not simple feints or dribbles, for example when the PP of Jose Maria Aznar knocked on their door to reach an agreement in 1996 and more recently when they voted against the motion of censure of Pedro Sanchez against Mariano Rajoy.
This Wednesday, the Basque nationalists They did their part to make clear that it would not be easy for Sánchez to govern without the government’s support. Parliament.
Also Junts, which for several months has distanced itself from the government, tried this Wednesday to favor a new defeat of the PSOE with its absence in the plenary session, but the unexpected abstention of Voice prevented the approval of a PP motion against the tax agreement agreed between the CFP And MRC.
Diada
Moncloa has the euphoria of being able to show a Catalonia Day takes place in institutional normality, with a president socialist, with divided and opposing pro-independence parties and, above all, without support at the ballot box and in the streets.
Only 60,000 peopleAccording to data from the Urban Guard, supported the march. This is the lowest figure since 2012, considering that last year there were 115,000 and that it reached 1,800,000 in 2014. For Sánchez, this “prick” of the process justifies a large part of his policy.
Their problem is that all this goes hand in hand with the collapse of the investiture bloc and the confirmation of the lack of support. Its strength in Catalonia This is a weakness in the CongressThis is where he must rely to govern.
PNV joins PP
Just three days after the President of the Government presented his theory on the prosecution “with or without the help of the Legislative Power”, the PNV joined an initiative of the PP that partly breaks the speech of Sánchez and, precisely, on a question related to foreign policy, more precisely, on Venezuela.
The initiative was adopted with 177 votes in favour, with the support of the PP, Vox, PNV, Unión del Pueblo Navarro and the Canarian Coalition.
It is true that this is a non-legal proposal that does not oblige the government to comply with it, but this amounts to delegitimising the position of Moncloa on an issue that is also controversial in national politics. Where it hurts most.
Furthermore, this affects Sanchez’s negotiation strategy in Venezuela.
The PNV spokesman in Congress, Aitor Esteban, and the PSOE’s organizing secretary, Santos Cerdán, this Tuesday.
Sanchez rejects recognition of Edmundo Gonzalez as the elected president of Venezuela and has now had to accept in an amendment the possibility that the European Union will study it so that the probable parliamentary defeat is not obvious. And even then, he has not succeeded.
The President of the Government has already made it clear that he will not comply with the approved non-legislative proposal, but it is already known that he will do so against the absolute majority of Congress.
“Parliamentary test”
Just three days after Sánchez expressed his intentions, members of the government consider that these will not be difficult months, that there will be many parliamentary defeats and some even speak of ““parliamentary test”. Especially if the PP manages to find political flags to which it can adhere. Together And PNV without complexes to agree when voting with Voice. For example, Venezuela and those that have to do with economic, social or fiscal policy.
In fact, high-ranking government sources admit that it will not be possible for them to put Sánchez’s thesis of “black and white” into practice in a standard.“More public buses and fewer Lamborghinis” and more taxes for those who have “money in the bank to live a hundred lives.” This will remain a rhetorical statement because Junts and the PNV will not support it.
Moncloa has tried to downplay the importance of the parliamentary setback, explaining that it does not affect any pending law and ensuring that it maintains contact with the PNV to ensure that it is something specific and, above all, to obtain its support for the budgets.
The government explains that the position of the PNV is more detailed than that of Junts.
This situation already occurred just before the holidays with the votes on the immigration law and the spending cap. Now the PNV has joined the discouragement of Junts. In addition, the government partners have collaborated with the PP to force Sánchez to appear soon in the Chamber to debate the immigration policy.
Unsustainable situation
“We can forget about the legislative and budgetary portfolio, but indefinitely it is very complicated. It is difficult to do without Parliament because things happen every day and important decisions are taken for the Executive,” explained the PNV spokesperson. Aitor Estebanto make it clear that the situation is untenable in the long term. This is supported by other parties that support the government, and even by some socialist deputies.
This situation could continue during the next vote on the new spending ceiling approved this Tuesday by the Council of Ministers. In fact, and significantly, the Vice-President Maria Jesus Montero He addressed the PP several times in the press conference that followed the Council of Ministers, but avoided doing so towards Junts, which until recently was part of the investiture bloc that promoted Sánchez to Moncloa.
The spokesman of the Junts, Miriam Nogueras, He insisted this Wednesday, in the plenary session of the Congress, on his willingness to promote once again the rejection of the new attempt of the Government to approve the spending ceiling, the first step to approve the Budgets.
He will be able to have continuity in the General State Budgets, whose draft must be submitted to Congress before the end of this month, in accordance with the mandate of the Constitution. He will have to do so even if he has no guarantee that Junts will support him.
Government sources admit the difficulty of establishing the accounts in a context of internal debates in the Junts and the ERC and without the application of the amnesty being resolved. Carles Puigdemont.
The Constitution stipulates that the Government must submit the accounts to Parliament before the end of September, but it is very difficult for it to meet this timetable.
They add that, in any case, they will try to attract the Catalan independentists again in the coming weeks.
For now, each vote will be “a test.”
Moncloa’s response is to minimize the damage and the scope of the votes. In fact, the PSOE has released a tweet Rafael SimancasSecretary of State for Relations with the Cortes, in which he ensures that andn During this legislature, there were 541 votes in plenary and the government won 502.
In qualitative terms, the losses include, among others, a labor decree, the budget spending ceiling, the reform of the immigration law and a proposal to establish Spain’s position towards Venezuela. Since November 2023, when the legislature began, the Government has seen three laws definitively approved.
“Unable to govern”
Faced with this situation, the PP sticks out its chest to ensure that “the parliamentary precariousness de Sánchez anticipates the difficulty he will have in ensuring that this year there will be Budgetsand fits very badly with the arrogance of the Council of Ministers and its threats against the autonomous communities and municipal councils, while presenting the same spending ceiling that Congress rejected in July.”
As they explain, “Sanchez lives in La Moncloa, but he does not govern and he is not capable of reaching an agreement with the CCAA, which he refuses to unite into one. Conference of Presidents“, nor does he have a guaranteed parliamentary majority to move anything forward, as his successive parliamentary defeats prove, which is why he says he will govern without the help of Parliament, which he considers very restrictive.”
