The PP-A of Juanma Moreno would win the next Andalusian elections with 41.8% of the votes and an advantage of 14.7 points compared to the PSOE-A of Juan Espadaswhich after having accumulated four consecutive defeats at the polls (regional, municipal, general and European) has still not taken off. The popular would thus repeat the absolute majority collected in 2022 (43.1%), although with a slight loss of votes, according to a new quarterly edition of the Andalusian Barometer prepared by the Center for Andalusian Studies Foundation (Centra).
According to this survey, the PSOE-A He would obtain 27.1% of the votes, three points more than in 2022 (24.1%), but still insufficient. Vox would repeat as third force in the community with 11.1% of the votes (2.3 points less), exceeding Add (in this case Por Andalucía, the coalition of Podemos, IU and Más País, among others), which would be the fourth force with 8.6% support.
THE Before Andalusia of Teresa Rodríguez would obtain 4.3% of the votes and The party is overthe formation promoted by Alvise Pérez, 2.7% which would leave him without representation in the Andalusian Chamber.
The PP-A, between 56 and 58 seats
Translated into seats, this result would give between 56 and 58 places for him PP-A in the Andalusian Parliament, against 58 currently, while the PSOE-A It would evolve between its 30 or 32 current deputies.
For his part, Voice would obtain between 12 and 13 seats (it now has 14), while Add He would obtain between six and seven deputies (for Andalusia, he has five). The investigation attributes Before Andalusia between one and two parliamentarians (there are now two).
Moreno, the best valued
As for the evaluation of political leaders, only Juanma Morenoleader of the Junta and the PP-A, gets the pass, with a score of 5.45. It is also the best known of those surveyed (97.2%). The secretary general of the PSOE-A, Juan Spadesobtains a score of 4.12 points and a knowledge level of 77%.
The spokesperson for the Joint Group-Adelante Andalucía, José Ignacio Garciaobtains a rating of 4.64 points, making him the second highest rated political leader, although he is the least known by citizens (13.1%).
The parliamentary spokesperson for Por Andalucía, Immaculate Grandsonobtains a score of 4.62 points (known by 27.8% of those questioned), and the spokesperson for Vox in Parliament, Manuel Gaviraobtains a score of 3.72 and a knowledge level of 20.6%.
Assessment of the political situation
For 61.8% of those questioned, the current political situation in Andalusia It’s the same as a year ago, while 10.2% see it “better” and 25.3% see it “worse”. 47.6% consider that in a year the situation will remain the same as today, while 46.9% consider that the Andalusian political situation is “negative” for the future of Andalusia. 37.1% who consider it “positive”.
In addition, 33.8% of Andalusians consider the political situation in Andalusia as “very good” (2.6%) or “good” (31.2%), compared to 46.4% who consider it “bad (31%). .5%) or “very bad”. (14.9%).
Regarding the Spanish political situation69% of those questioned describe it as “negative” for the future of the country and only 19.2% consider it “positive”.
On the other hand, 27.5% of those questioned believe that the Andalusian economy will do “better” in the coming months compared to Spain as a whole, while 39.3% predict it will do “worse”.
The problems of Andalusia
Finally, the barometer questions the main problems that currently exist in Andalusia. 34.9% of those questioned indicate that “lack of work” and “unemployment” as the main problem faced by the community, before the “health” (13.6%) and “access and prices of accommodation» (8.7%).
To the question of which political party believe you can give a best answer To the problems of Andalusia indicated, 21.4% point to the PP, 14.7% to the PSOE, 5.4% to Vox and 3.8% to Sumar.
This survey was carried out between September 16 and 30 among a sample of 3,600 adults residing in Andalusia. This is the ninth investigation of the Centra Andalusian Barometer with vote estimation data since the regional elections of June 19, 2022 and so far in the twelfth legislature. Periodically, the Centra survey depends on the Ministry of Presidency, Interior, Social Dialogue and Administrative Simplification of the Government of Andalusia and is externally audited by the Official College of Political Sciences and Sociology of Andalusia.
