The Russian military waited more than five weeks before launching a ground counteroffensive in Russia’s Kursk region on the border with Ukraine. The first attempt began on Tuesday, September 10. The Russian Defense Ministry said on Telegram on Thursday that it had resumed. “in two days”, “ten locations” conquered by the Ukrainians. The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) attacked Russian territory by surprise on August 6, managing to occupy a maximum area of 1,300 square kilometers in less than a week. This is the equivalent of what the Russians have conquered in the last six months in Ukraine. The lines then stabilized around a territory of 1,000 square kilometers.
Volodymyr Zelensky admitted for the first time on Thursday that the Russians had begun to counterattack to dislodge his troops. The Ukrainian president wanted to be reassuring: “Everything is going according to our Ukrainian plan”he said, without further details, during a press conference in kyiv.
It is still too early to judge the success of the Russian counteroffensive, as the situation remains dynamic and visual evidence is scarce. We know that the Russian General Staff sent an estimated force of 6,000 soldiers, members of elite troops (paratroopers and marines) to the western flank of the Ukrainian salient (the territory conquered by kyiv). The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (AFRF) crossed rivers with light armoured vehicles and then broke through Ukrainian lines, retaking three villages: Snagost, Oktyabr and Vnezapnoye.
“There is still no progress”
“It is a fact that we have launched a counteroffensive with new forces. Yesterday we were optimistic, today we are less so. You have to wait.”a source close to the Russian military tells Moscow that at least one airborne division has been moved from Donbass to the Kursk region. “At first our operation was very successful: several villages were liberated and prisoners were captured. The resistance was weak, as the Ukrainians did not have a continuous front line. Therefore, the first successes were most likely due to the effect of surprise. But there is still no breakthrough. »
Despite the rather unusual speed of the Russian attack, Ukrainian military expert Evgen Diki believes, on the contrary, that “ “There was no element of surprise, because it was obvious that sooner or later the FAFR would try to expel the FAU.” For him, the Ukrainian General Staff opted for a defence in depth, in a monotonous terrain made up of forests and rivers. “The decision was made not to build solid defensive lines and to be content with fortifications in particularly vulnerable areas, with highly mobile groups, as was successfully carried out in the north of the country in the spring of 2022.
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