Now the week is almost over – and the agreement is still in the future. Various messages have grown over the past few days – not only among civilians in the gas sector, but also with relatives of the remaining hostages – and then fear again.
During the week, three problems of negotiations became known: Hamas insisted on the return of the old mechanism for the distribution of humanitarian goods about the United Nations and created assistance organizations, and not through gas, the Humanitrian fund.
This fund is considered the initiated Israel itself. It is criticized by many parties, for example, because the collection of freight bags of non -dubious people is not paying tribute, and because again and again – with a high probability from the Israeli army – he shot people on the way to distribution centers. The problem of the distribution mechanism is most likely resolved. So, Katarish Zeytung reported Al-Arabi al-Jidid approximation.
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Negotiations seem more difficult at the second point of sticking: according to the requirements of Hamas, Israel must remove his ground forces in positions, which he occupied until the end of the ceasefire in March. First of all, the military must hold the corridor Moha in accordance with the messages of the Israeli media. This takes place between the southern city of Rafach and the city of Chan Unis, the north. Negotiations about whether the Israeli army should leave the corridor and other strategically significant places in the gas sector.
Are all the actors ready for negotiations?
The last point of disagreement remains: the duration of the ceasefire. The ceasefire is currently discussing sixty days. In total, ten hostages should be released in sixty days, half of the 20 remaining gas sector: eight on the first day, two on the fifty day. Five of 27 dead hostages should be transferred on the seventh day of the ceasefire, five more after thirty days and eight on the last day.
Loud New York Times It should be part of the negotiations that Hamas does not prevent ceremony to transfer hostages or corpses in the gas sector. She did this in the last ceasefire in the spring of this year. His photographs caused indignation and sympathy around the world, for example, when the coffins of the Bibas family stolen from Israel were convicted.
But what will happen if sixty days are coming to an end?
According to media reports, the table currently notes that the ceasefire can be extended, since Israel and Hamas are involved in serious subsequent negotiations. The Prime Minister of Israel Netanyahu demands that all hostages become free, and the military and political structures of Hamas are destroyed. And this should “guarantee that gas no longer poses a threat to Israel.” According to Netanyahu, this means “no hamas.”
The war will probably continue
Thus, everything in the negotiations cannot hide the fact that the main problem continues to exist: Israel calls for weapons and control from Hamas – and leave a series of gas from their leaders. It seems that Hamas is unlikely to have the readiness of Hamas. According to the present, this is a ceasefire – if it comes, it will only cause a delay in the war, but not at its end. The scenario, it seems, is not very different from this since January: a temporary ceasefire in exchange for a limited number of hostages.
Again and again, analysts return to the same conclusions: until the Israeli government can agree on a strategy to meet Hamas outside the battlefield, the war will continue. Since the long-term decision, the implemented plan for the rural strip of the post-hama still does not exist. The Israeli government rejects control over the coastal strip through the Palestinian power, which prevails over the parts of the occupied West Coast. And the plan of US President Trump, whom Netanyahu raises, what Palestinians should “voluntarily” leave the rural strip in contrast to international law and have already guaranteed counter-protestes all over the world.
Ultimately, there is an awareness: even if there is a ceasefire, even if it lasts years, and not for months, the conflict is not resolved. The release of all Israeli hostages from the gas sector will not be able to solve it. It would also be naive to assume that Hamas will accept the end of the crew of the West Coast and the end of the war in Gaz as a long -term peaceful decision.
The decision is not visible
The two -color solution is still the best option for the long -term world. In order to even start this process, Hamas control personnel must first leave a series of gas, a militia hand over the weapon. The hostages had to be returned to Israel; Palestinian prisoners, against whom there are no specific accusations, are released from Israeli prisons.
Israel would have to recognize the Office for the Autonomy of the Palestinian Autonomy of the again partners in safety matters and allow them to control their own population – as on the western coast, as well as on a series of gas. The management of autonomy should have recognized the problems of Israeli safety and actively counteract them. And the last, but no less important: Israel would have to show the willingness to abandon settlements on the west coast and Eastern Jerusalem within the borders of 1967.
All this will not happen after the current mixture. And therefore, each ceasefire – if it comes – the maximum of the gap, but not by the solution.
