nuclear deterrence, AI and climate change

This second Trump administration will have to face the challenges of a climate change what he does not believe in, he will have to reaffirming a decades-old foreign policy that it is a burden and you will see how a technology develops –Artificial intelligence– call to completely change the planet.

Are three existential questions for human beings and for the planet in general, in which take risks and satisfy the interests of your friends -two particularities of the first Trump administration and of his character as such- can constitute an enormous danger.

The president-elect turns around three men who can play a key role when it comes to responding to these challenges: Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Elon Musk and JD Vance. Apparently, the three will be part of his government team and will have to make decisions that can calm or shake the world. The future of the planet as we understand it will depend on their ability to put aside campaign populism and confront problems seriously and rigorously.

What would you do in the face of a pre-emptive attack from Putin in Europe?

Let’s start with the nuclear question, that is to say by the more or less active role that the United States wishes to play in foreign policy. Since the end of the Second World War, or rather since the Soviet Union carried out its first atomic test in 1949, nuclear war has been out of the question for reasons of deterrence between blocs. Each superpower had the counterbalance of another nuclear superpower that threatened to retaliate against any attack until it eventually destroyed itself completely.

In fact, we know from Pentagon leaks that Vladimir Putin considered using tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine in fall 2022, when the war goes badly with the disasters of Kharkiv and Kherson. The decision had been made, but American diplomacy and NATO acted quickly: if Putin took the step that no one had taken since 1945, he would be involved in a direct conflict with the Atlantic Alliance and all its troops in Ukraine would be wiped out by massive attacks. attacks with conventional weapons.

Deterrence, once again, worked. The question now is: Would Trump react the same way? The Republican is a fervent admirer of Vladimir Putin as well as all the autocrats in the world, including Kim Jong-Un. Not only that, his vice president JD Vance has consistently opposed any aid to Ukraine in the Senate, considers Zelensky “a merchant” and denies that Putin is an enemy of the United Statesbut simply a “competitor”.

If Russia – or North Korea or China – believes that launching a nuclear bomb will bring it a military benefit and that it will have no consequences, it is difficult to appeal to the moral sense to avoid a tragedy . A tragedy that could spread at any moment. The war in Ukraine will unfortunately end falsely, but the threat does not end there: what would happen if Putin decided to attack Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania or Finland? How would Vance and Trump react? Would they let him? In that case, we’d all better start enriching uranium like crazy as soon as possible.

The incalculable risks of Artificial Intelligence

Elon Musk He is the richest man in the world and one of Donald Trump’s strongest supporters. Their friendship, yes, is relatively new.. For years they were at odds or, at least, estranged. Everyone on their own path. Now, in the final month of campaigning, Musk has been so dedicated to supporting Trump that he has almost certainly won a position in his administration. In principle, it’s about controlling public spending, although it’s impossible to keep a guy with the concerns of a tech mogul in such a bureaucratic position.

In addition to the Starlink internet server, high-generation Tesla cars, the SpaceX aeronautical program and the social network X (formerly Twitter), Musk has fully immersed himself in the development of artificial intelligence, the industry of the future. Although many associate AI with little more than “deep fakes” of certain images and the wisdom of GPT Chat, the truth is that we are talking about a technology with infinite possibilities, with the risk that this entails.

In addition, for the first time since the industrial revolution, It is a technology developed by the private sector, mainly in Silicon Valley, where caution is frowned upon and risk trumps everything. In this sense, the surveillance and control of a state authority is extremely important. AI, according to the experts in charge of its research, can change the world as the wheel, the steam engine, the printing press or nuclear weapons themselves have changed it. We are talking about an unknown territory in which we can find both gods and monsters.

In his recent book, At the limitstatistician Nate Silver consults several of these experts on their risk assessment, known in the jargon as “p (unfortunate)“. The “p (doom)” quantifies the possibility of a huge catastrophe that would wipe out humanity or at least with our way of understanding it.

It sounds like science fiction, but This is a vital issue right now in Silicon Valley and many understand that the risk of disaster is high, even very high, if things are not done sensibly. Will a Trump administration bring this common sense to developers’ ambitions? Will Trump impose limits on, say, Musk… or will he systematically look the other way? What will other countries do if they see that no one is intervening? These are unknowns that must be resolved as quickly as possible.

From “hydraulic fracturing” to “chemtrails”: everything but science

When we talk about climate change there is always controversy. Few doubt that accelerating climate change is a reality, because the data and the consensus is almost complete in the scientific community on man’s responsibility in this acceleration. Another thing is in the political domain. There’s no agreement there or anything like that. Increasingly, environmental policies, green programs, etc. They are less favored because they have a cheap price. And many people, faced with the possibility of obtaining more resources now or protecting future generations from possible catastrophe, choose the former.

Among them, for example, is Donald Trump. His attacks on limitations on industry have been consistent throughout the campaign –He assured that he would authorize “hydraulic fracturing” since the first day of his mandate -, and he has also surrounded himself with illustrious conspiracy theorists who have in recent years fueled more than one controversy based on easily propagated hoaxes. Among them is, for example, Joe Rogan, the famous podcaster who has never hidden his fascination with the MAGA movement and who, as the elections approach, has decided to directly ask to vote for Trump.

There is also, of course, Robert F. Kennedy Jr.., known anti-vaccine, defender of the “chemtrail” theory and ally of Trump since he withdrew his candidacy as an independent in August. RFK Jr. is convinced he will have a role to play in the administration and among his proposals are limiting public funding for vaccines and eliminating fluoride from water because it is associated with terrible diseases, without no scientific proof.

The first Trump administration already demonstrated, in its agony, a will against science every time it ruined its plans. Trump’s recommendation to drink bleach to end Covid or the media persecution against Anthony Fauci will go down in history. Leaving Americans’ health in Kennedy’s hands is already a danger, but leaving environmental protection measures in his hands or those of one of his new friends affects the entire planet and complicates its existence as such. .