The Spanish economy will grow this year and next year well above the estimated average for the eurozone, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), which has revised upwards its forecast for the expansion of Spain’s gross domestic product (GDP). for 2024 at 2.8% and 2.2% for 2025.
According to the new projections contained in the report “Economic Perspectives”, the Spanish GDP will advance this year by one point more than its forecast in Maywhile the figures put forward for 2025 are two tenths higher than those achieved before mid-year.
The OECD rates for Spain are similar to those anticipated by the Bank of Spain, which predicts a Growth of 2.8% for this year and 2.2% for the next, also in line with the estimates of the Independent Authority for Budget Responsibility (AIReF), which predicts a GDP increase of 2.8% and 2.2% in 2025, respectively 3%. Likewise, the Government’s forecasts indicate a GDP increase of 2.7% in 2024 and 2.4% for 2025.
In this way, Spain will continue to grow well above the Eurozone average, namely four times more in 2024 and nine tenths more in 2025. In this sense, the OECD forecasts an expansion for the Eurozone of 0.7% in 2024 and 1.3% in 2025, respectively unchanged and two tenths less since the May report.
Improving the global economy
The OECD also revised upwards, by a tenth in this case, its forecast for global economic growth in 2024, which now stands at 3.2%, although it maintained its growth forecast for next year at 3.2%.
“Global GDP growth is projected to stabilise at 3.2% in 2024 and 2025, with further disinflation, improving real incomes and less restrictive monetary policy in many economies helping to support demand,” the OECD said. “Inflation is projected to return to its target in most G20 countries by the end of 2025,” it added in its report.
Among major economies, new OECD projections predict a US growth of 2.6% this year and 1.6% the next, unchanged and two-tenths below the May forecast. This year-on-year slowdown will be less than it could be thanks to the easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve (Fed), which will have a positive impact on the second half of 2025.
In the case of the euro zoneThe Paris-based organization anticipates a GDP expansion of 0.7% in 2024as previously expected, while projected growth for next year has fallen by two-tenths to 1.3%. The rebound will be the result of lower interest rates and the recovery of real disposable income.
For the UK, a GDP increase of 1.1% is recorded for 2024 and 1.2% in 2025, respectively seven tenths and two tenths more, while Japan will record a decline of 0.1% this year, six tenths less, but this will be restored with an advance of 1.4% in 2025, three tenths more.
Outside the OECD, the think tank’s forecasts point to a slowdown in the Chinese economy despite an increase in public spending in the second half of 2024 due to the “prolonged correction” in the real estate sector, which will persist, as well as “insufficient social measures” “safety nets” and weak consumer confidence, which will weigh on private spending.
Thus, the expansion of the GDP of the “Asian giant” will be 4.9% this year and 4.5% in 2025. These two figures have not been changed by the OECD compared to its May report.
As for other emerging countries, Brazil saw its 2024 growth revised by an additional point, to 2.9%, and that of 2025 by half a point more, to 2.6%, due to higher public spending, but with less flexibility in its monetary policy, working against it.
India also saw its GDP estimates improved by one and two tenths, respectively, to 6.7% in 2024 and 6.8% in 2028. South Africa, meanwhile, will grow by 1% this year and 1.4% next, unchanged.
