Luca Paolini, chief strategist at Pictet AM, offered a moderately positive outlook for markets in 2025 on Thursday, although with stock markets already at record highs, we are unlikely to see 20% rises like these. recent years. The companies are already trading at very high prices in the United States, and Paolini You wouldn’t be surprised if we see a significant correction, despite which they could rise 7-8% over the course of the year.. “Compared to a year ago, there is now less room for positive surprises over the next 12 months,” he explained. Concerning the bond market, it has potential, but limited. Paolini sees the “T-Note” as an ideal entry point at 5%, but struggles to reach it. Regarding Trump, maybe it’s good or bad for the market, depending on how many announced measures he will actually implement as the new President of the United States. Eléonore Bunel (Lazard): “The 10-year American bond offers a good entry point at 4.5%.”
With portfolios overflowing with liquidity, which assets currently offer opportunities to the European investor? “Personally, I would buy business credit, perhaps in the short term, high yield…because default rates are very low. And maybe next year I would start buying European stocks,” Paolini explained. “But I still won’t cancel my bond positions to buy stocks, but rather I will allocate part of what I currently has liquidity in equities.” he warned. The potential in Europe “is limited”, but the fundamentals are relatively positive, “and the species it stays high because people worry about the future; If you are afraid, you do not have children and you save”, he adds. García (Diaphanum): “2025 will be good for the stock market and for bonds, but it may not be as good as 2024.”
In the United States, the chief strategist at Pictet AM detects a certain weariness: companies are exceeding expectations with their results, but despite everything, their share price is not celebrating it. For their part, Eurozone stocks are cheap, as is the single currency, even if they lack a growth catalyst. The manager prefers the American stock market.
Gonzalo Rengifo, head of Pictet AM in Iberia and Latin America, added some attractive areas for the coming months. “Without a doubt, we must turn to the energy transition. For the first time in decades, electricity consumption in developed markets is growing. In the United States, the entire electricity transmission network is obsolete and in need of renewal. this was linked to the issues of energy, electricity, data centers, artificial intelligence… When we look at global markets, it is interesting to identify these types of major trends, these are value segments within stocks. With them, with real estate listed, it is possible to obtain returns of 4% or 4.5% while assuming little risk, Rengifo explained.
THE Trumponomy are inflationary, deregulation and tax cuts can boost confidence and growth. To estimate the impact, we can assume that 50% of what Trump proposed will be implemented in four key areas: international trade, taxes, immigration and deregulation. But until now, the market has only taken into account Trump is goodthat is, deregulation and tax cuts. There are, however, two major undervalued tail risks: the outbreak of a global trade war and rising bond yields linked to concerns about the US deficit. In 2025, US GDP growth could slow to 1.9%.
