The political course resumes in September with the PP and the PSOE without changes in their electoral aspirations. Alberto Núñez Feijóo’s party has not moved for three months and the Socialist Party, which fell almost a point in August compared to the previous month, has only recovered a tenth. Below, Vox also remains unchanged while Sumar fails to stop its fall and has already been falling for six months.
The September barometer, prepared by Simple Lógica for elDiario.es, once again leaves the PP as the party with the most votes if general elections were held now. It would obtain 33.5% of the vote, the same figure as in July and June. The Popular Party exhausted the momentum of the opposition to the amnesty law a few months ago and although it has had a few months of falls, it has now stabilized in this figure, which leaves it four tenths above its results in 2023.
The PSOE, for its part, would obtain 30.6% of the vote, one tenth more than a month ago. The socialists, unlike the PP, have had a few months of ups and downs that led them to reach 31.6%, then fall and now stabilize. The best news for Pedro Sánchez’s team is that the three-point gap with the PP is maintained, which was seven at the beginning of the year.
The Socialists, yes, are now below their results of July 2023 (31.7%) and have already spent a year without managing to recover this figure, which kept them a short distance from the PP in the elections and allowed them to continue in the Government.
Vox is still installed in a third place for which it has not had to fight for a long time. The far-right party is experiencing the same situation as the PP: three months in a row with the same vote estimate. In its case, it would obtain 10.5% of the votes, compared to 12.4% in the legislative elections.
These data have two readings for those of Santiago Abascal. On the one hand, it is the worst record of the legislature, far from the best records. On the other hand, they have managed to stabilize at these 10.5% despite the emergence of the platform of Alvise Pérez, which competes for the same electorate. According to the Simple Lógica barometer, the SALF (The Party is Finished) would obtain 3.8% of the votes, one tenth more than a month ago.
Sumar is the one who comes out the worst in this survey at the beginning of the political journey. Yolanda Díaz’s program, badly damaged after the electoral processes of the first half of the year, is not managing to stop the hemorrhage of votes. It would now obtain 7.4%, three tenths less than a month ago. The data mean that the party has already experienced six months of decline and is very far from its 2023 data, when it obtained 12.3% of the vote and fought with Vox for third place.
Finally, Podemos progressed by five tenths, going from 2.9% to 3.4%. Although this is not the best data for Ione Belarra’s party, Podemos has been on the rise for three consecutive months.
The vote transfer data show that the PP is the party that retains the most of its electorate, with 79.3% of loyal supporters, followed by 75% of those who would repeat with the PSOE. Vox, for its part, retains 60.7% of the electorate and sees one in five voters leave with Alvise Pérez. Sumar only retains 58.2% of those who voted for him in 2023 and loses support to the PSOE and Podemos.
The fight between the blocs is once again favourable to the right, which would gather 47.8% of voters, against 41.4% of the left bloc.
Sanchez regains popularity
Although his party is stagnating in electoral expectations, the president of the government, Pedro Sánchez, is managing to regain popularity after a significant drop in August. He now has a positive rating of 33.8%, more than two points higher than a month ago. She is followed by the second vice president and Minister of Labor, Yolanda Díaz, who is also recovering from the falls of recent months and has a rating of 30.6%.
PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo remains in third place with the same figure as a month ago, 24%, the second worst figure since the 2023 elections. Behind, Ione Belarra surpasses Santiago Abascal and places himself with a positive rating of 16.6% against 15.6% for the Vox leader.
