Climate change will shift and reduce the amount of land suitable for growing food and timber, putting the production of these two vital resources in direct competition.
The vision of the vineyard in Great Britain This is becoming more common as warmer summers create increasingly favorable conditions for growing grapes.
But behind this success story, there is something to think about: climate change is moving regions of the world suitable for growing crops.
Researchers at the University of Cambridge have discovered a looming problem: as the land suitable for the production of our food is moving northThe land we need to grow trees will be reduced. The wood produced by these trees forms the basis of much of modern life, from paper and cardboard to furniture and buildings.
Climate change
They say that increasing competition between land for timber and food production due to climate change, so far, has been neglectedbut this is destined to become an emerging problem as our demand for both continues to increase.
In the worst-case scenario of climate change, if no action is taken to decarbonize society, the study concludes that more than a quarter of existing forest land (about 320 million hectares, equivalent to the size of India) will be more suitable for agriculture by the end of the century.
Four privileged countries
Most of the forests used for timber production are currently located in the northern hemisphere, United States, Canada, China and Russia. The study concluded that 90% of all current forest land that will be productive for agriculture in 2100 will be in these four countries..
In particular, tens of millions of hectares of timber-producing land in Russia will become suitable for agriculture (more than in the United States, Canada and China combined), and conditions will become favorable for the potato, soybean and wheat cultivation.
Moving north
“There is only a limited amount of suitable land on the planet where we can produce food and timber.two essential resources for society. “As climate change worsens and agriculture is forced to expand northwards, there will be increasing pressure on timber production“, explained Oscar Morton, a researcher in the Department of Plant Sciences at the University of Cambridge, who co-led the study.
“We have to think fifty years ahead because if we want wood in the futureIt must be planted now. The trees that will be cut down at the end of this century are already on the ground; Their cycles are much slower than those of food crops.” adds Chris Bousfield, postdoctoral researcher in the Department of Plant Sciences at the University of Cambridge and co-leader of the study.
It is projected that Global food demand to double by 2050 as the population grows and becomes wealthier. Global demand for timber is also expected to double over the same period, largely because it is a low-carbon alternative to concrete and steel for construction.
Agriculture and forestry
Transfer of wood production going into deeper areas of the boreal or tropical forests is not a viable optionbecause the trees in these regions have remained intact for thousands of years and cutting them down would release huge amounts of carbon and threaten biodiversity.
“One of the main environmental risks of increasing competition for access to land between agriculture and forestry is that timber production is shifting to remaining areas of primary forest in tropical or boreal zones. These are the epicenters of natural spaces The world’s remaining rainforests and intact rainforests are the most biodiverse places on the planet. “It is essential to prevent further expansion,” said David Edwards, professor of plant ecology in the Department of Plant Sciences at the University of Cambridge and lead author of the study.
To obtain their results, the researchers tOman satellite data which showed intensive forestry around the world and superimposed on it projections of agricultural land suitable for major global crops, including rice, wheat, corn, soybeans and potatoes, in the future under various climate change scenarios.
Even in the best-case scenario, when the world reaches net-zero emissions goals, researchers say there will still be significant changes in regions that are good for timber and crop production.
Study on natural climate change
wood production contributes more than US$1.5 trillion annually to national economies around the world. Heat waves and resulting wildfires have recently caused massive losses of timber forests worldwide. Climate change is also leading to the spread of pests such as the bark beetle, which attacks trees.
It is expected that Climate change is making tropical regions too hot and inhospitable to grow food and make vast areas of the south Europe are much less suitable for food and timber production.
The challenges of wood
“Climate change already poses problems for timber production“This is now compounded by increased pressure from agriculture, creating a veritable storm of problems,” says Bousfield.
“Securing our future supply of wood may not seem as urgent as securing the food we need to eat and survive. But the Wood is also integrated into our daily lives and we need to develop strategies to ensure food and forest security in the future,” Morton concludes.
