Now all the pressure is on Podemos. It depends on its four deputies if this Thursday the tax bill to which the government plans to stick will be approved. her tax reform.
It depends on these votes whether the Executive overcomes a fundamental obstacle to budgets or, on the contrary, suffers a huge defeat and its ability to Pedro Sanchez to advance in the Legislative Assembly.
The Government could benefit from the abstention of the four purple parliamentarians, provided that the deputy of the Canarian Coalition, Cristina ValidoAnd Jose Luis Abalos support the government. Failing to finalize the last details, the sources consulted are optimistic about these two votes.
But, for the moment, the party of Ione Belarra remains at no. The argument defended by the secretary general of Podemos is that with these rules on the table, there is no guarantee that taxes on energy companies and banks will be maintained. Basically, the government is asking you for an act of faith.
This promise would be the subject of a future royal decree which generates at least two problems. The first is that the partners believe that it is a Moncloa negotiation model which consists of cheat with ambiguous pacts, which do not depend on them but on third parties and it can stay in a drawer for months.
This happened several times. This happened with the transfer of immigration powers to the Junts to save a specific vote before the summer, with the tax agreement for Catalonia which allowed the inauguration of Salvador Illa and now with taxes on energy companies and banks, among other precedents. Or even amnesty, the application of which depended on the judges and not on the Government.
The second problem is that no one is sure that Junts will not leave the inauguration bloc again during the vote this hypothetical decree. Especially, given the tendency of post-convergents to break pacts made by the left at the last minute, as happened during the vote on Sumar’s temporary rent law.
Coming back to tax reform, this Thursday we will vote on the opinion approved on Monday by the Finance Commission of the Congress, which provides for the transposition of a European directive to ensure a certain tax harmonization for multinational companies throughout the European Union . Concretely, establish a minimum corporate tax rate of 15% to prevent them from fleeing from one country to another.
The rule should be definitively approved in plenary in order to come into force before the end of the year and thus avoid sanctions from Brussels. It is also essential to obtain the 7.2 billion from the fifth round of Next Generation European funds.
Amendments referring to energy companies and banks, as well as other taxes such as private healthcare or real estate companies (socimis), have been removed from this text. The inclusion of these “embellishments” allowed the government to promote the directive as the tax reform that Europe was demanding.
The decision It was approved with the votes of PSOE, PNV, Junts, Bildu, ERC, Sumar and BNG.. Podemos is not part of this commission, but its four votes are decisive during Thursday’s plenary session.
To move it forward in committee, the Government closed to the extreme a curious agreement with Bildu and ERC by which he undertakes to approve a decree in which taxes on energy companies and banks are extended.
No votes confirmed
The problem is that this decree would require the vote of the Junts and the PNV, which are against these taxes. Furthermore, shortly after make the pact early in the morningthe Ministry of Finance published a press release in which it decaffeinated the content of the agreement and assured that the agreement with those of Carles Puigdemont was still valid and unchanged.
Specifically, he noted that “the government maintains its agreement with Junts not to tax energy companies that maintain their commitment to effective investment in favor of decarbonization.” This would result in a considerable distortion of the tax, as all companies respect this commitment.
It is for this reason that Podemos insists that it will not support Thursday’s judgment, as Ione Belarra and Ione have made clear on social networks. Irene Montero. At the same time, party sources explained this Wednesday that pressure from the Treasury was “very strong” to include them again in the investiture majority, but that nothing had yet been finalized.
own Gabriel Rufian (ERC), in the same way, asked the Government this Tuesday for guarantees regarding the maintenance of the tax on energy companies. And there is no member of the government who does not express discomfort with the way Montero conducted the negotiations.
Podemos has decided in recent months to maintain a very recognizable left-wing profile, after breaking with Sumar and leaving the government almost a year ago. This issue of taxes is perfect for the purples to mark their left-wing position, against the PSOE and Sumar, and to put pressure in their favor.
Sources from Moncloa, however, assure that Belarra deputies won’t be able to withstand the pressure and they will end up joining the investiture bloc, while waiting for the decree on energy companies. At least they hope to obtain their abstention, which would leave them in the hands of the Canarian Coalition and Ábalos.
In fact, the government had proposed a few days ago to Podemos the same solution that it had finally accepted with Bildu and ERC, and the purples radically rejected it because they did not guarantee that it would be approved before the January 1, date on which this tax will decline. .
On Monday, Bildu was the first party to agree to vote on the opinion and suspend the tax on energy companies, but it in turn needed the support of ERC and Podemos. Finally, he already had that of the ERC at dawn, but in no case that of Podemos.
The government’s argument admits the difficulties of carrying out initiatives and attempts to present the need to negotiate as a virtue, even if it is at the limit and with ambiguities.
However, they believe that the most complicated part of the negotiation, Monday, has already passed. This Tuesday, sources from the socialist leadership were optimistic about the possibility of convincing Podemos and reported that They would offer them compensation in exchange for their support, without giving details..
What they share is that one of the keys to the negotiation, once the extension of the tax on energy companies is agreed, is to define to what extent it is diluted. In other words, What amounts will businesses be able to deduct from taxes and how?; and what would be the conditions to avoid the tax.
