In the 2023 general elections, the space for progressive government has reached 152 places121 PSOE and 31 Sumar. Few, if we compare it to the great majorities of the past, but enough to form an investiture bloc with their partners. But if the polls were released today, the number of deputies would fall to 134of which only 8 would belong to the space of Yolanda Díaz.
Barely half of Sumar’s voters on June 23 would once again support the second vice president, who unites the low fidelity voters from across the parliamentary spectrum. If this happened, Díaz would not only have failed in his attempt to maintain the unity of the left, but he would have wasted all the electoral strength inherited from the previous stage.
In exchange, the Sumar debacle would have a counterpart: keeping the PSOE afloat even in a difficult moment for the left. In fact, Pedro Sanchez It would improve its 2023 results for the first time thanks to the shipwreck of its partners. And it is precisely because of this that it would also lose the absolute majority.
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This is what is revealed by the latest SocioMétrica barometer, the third part of which is published today by EL ESPAÑOL. A panorama in which the PP of Alberto Nuñez Feijoo It would reach 150 seats, more than the sum of the PSOE and Sumar. Vox, for its part, would fall to 27 deputies.
Continuing the dismemberment of the left, the collapse of the coalition to the left of the PSOE would mean the definitive resurrection of the Canwhich would steal 17.8% of its direct voters. They ran in the July 23, 2023 elections alongside Yolanda Díaz, but broke with her last December to join the Joint Group of Congress.
Since then, the magenta coalition has continued to chain together disasters (five, including the European elections) at the polls, but this one would be the most painful. In addition to being the party that retains the least number of its voters, barely 55.3%, it is also the one that no more transfer of the votes he has towards other formations. In fact, one in five (19%) would go to the PSOE payroll, which would allow Sánchez to save face.
Regarding the loyalty of the right, the PP (83.6%) and Vox (80.6%) are the only ones that would keep most of their former voters at home, followed by the PSOE (72%) by far. The novelty, in this case, would be the appearance of The party is overAlvise Perez’s party, which, after its appearance in the European elections, could reach up to 4 seats in Congress.
The new party gathers 10.2% of the former Vox voters, a figure similar to that of the European elections of June 12. If the two parties joined Feijóo and UPN, the sum of the four would give 182 placessufficient for an absolute majority. The problem is that today, this calculation seems distant.
Vox and Alvise Pérez have been criticizing Feijóo for months, especially after the decision of the leader of the Popular Party welcome a quota of migrants unaccompanied minors in the autonomous communities in which he governs. From then on, Abascal gave the order to abandon all the enterprises and let the PP govern alone.
Technical sheet
The study was carried out by the company SocioMétrica between August 26 and 31, 2024 through 2,310 random interviews taken from its own panel of n=10,000 individuals representative of all Spanish sociodemographic segments.
The final results were finely adjusted using a weighting variable that takes into account gender, age, province and electoral memory during the last three elections.
Maximum error: 3% (the average sociometric deviation of the vote in generation 23 was 1.1% and in the EU24 was 0.8%). No confidence level is applicable because this is a non-probability sampling.
Study Director: Gonzalo Adán. PhD in Political Psychology and Professor of Psychometrics and Social Research Techniques. SocioMétrica is a member of Insights + Analytics Spain.
