On Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian high command announced on its social networks the launch of American-made ATACMS missiles against an arms depot in the Bryansk region. This is the first attack on Russian soil with foreign weapons by General’s army Alexander Syrsky and he arrives a few hours after the president Joe Biden gave authorization to use medium- and long-range missiles against Russian and North Korean military targets.
This permit had been requested almost from the start of the war, when the HIMARS arrived in Ukraine, but the Democratic administration had always refused to facilitate it. The last time, at the end of September, after a long meeting between Biden and Zelensky at the White House. It’s unclear exactly what has changed since then, other than the fact that Vice President Kamala Harris lost the elections against Donald Trump on November 5. It is unclear whether this is a final gesture of collaboration with Ukraine or a message to the new administration to clarify who will be in charge until January 20.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky preferred not to comment on this issue during the press conference he held in kyiv with Danish Prime Minister Mette Fredrikssen. “Ukraine has long-range weapons: self-made drones, Neptune missiles, and now ATACMS missiles… We plan to use them all.” He thus responded to threats from the Kremlin in recent hours, which warned that the use of NATO weapons against Russian territory would be considered an act of war by the Alliance itself, regardless of the country which used them. would have launched.
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Change in Russian nuclear doctrine
The Russian reaction was not long in coming: spokesperson Dmitri Peskov appeared before the press on Tuesday morning to minimize the consequences of the attack, ensuring that five of the six missiles had been shot down and the sixth seriously damaged. However, he also announced that the president Vladimir Putin had signed the announced change in nuclear doctrine by which Russia reserves the right to respond with nuclear weapons to any attack with conventional weapons on its territory by a country allied to a nuclear power.
The change seems designed exclusively for the current situation and puts back on the table a threat that has been repeated almost since the first day of the invasion. Russia has always wanted to make it clear that it is a nuclear power and that alone deserves to be treated with respect. Furthermore, knows that there is no more powerful weapon to influence Western public opinions than the use of the scarecrow of the apocalypse. Of course, for the moment, all the red lines it has drawn have been crossed: from the attacks against Crimea to the delivery of certain weapons (anti-aircraft defense, long-range missiles, F16 fighters… ).
According to the prestigious journalist Bob Woodward in his latest book, WarRussia seriously considered using tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine after humiliating late summer 2022 defeats in Kharkiv and Kherson. The American reaction was immediate, warning of a massive attack with conventional weapons. At that time, China was siding with the United States and Russia felt that the situation was not desperate enough as its doctrine then demanded.
President Joe Biden went so far as to personally call Vladimir Putin in response to the efforts of the entire Kremlin entourage to deny the information available to the Pentagon. After an intense exchange of views, Putin ended up threatening the United States with nuclear war, to which the Democratic president responded that a nuclear war cannot be won, which makes it absurd to do so. trigger one. The Chinese president Xi Jinping has always maintained the same position on the issue, a position adopted for almost 80 years after the horrors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
No news from Donald Trump
Although the situation on the front is better for Russia today than in 2022, the threats return because they work. The Russian army has been on the offensive in Donbass for a year and a half and, although its advance is slow, it is at least continuous. The enormous price he pays in human lives and weapons is working against him, which has forced him to resort to the support of Kim Jong Un to liberate the Kursk region, part of which has been under the control of Ukrainian forces for months.
Although the panic is free and understandable, there is no indication that Putin will follow through on his threats. From the outset, it would be suicide, because it would mean an escalation that would likely end the planet as we know it, including Russia. It would make no sense to attempt any sort of madness at this time, when the war seems to have turned in its favor and there are two months until one of its greatest defenders arrives in the White House . In fact, if the ever-fearful Biden and his advisers Harris, Sullivan And Flashesthey ultimately made this decision probably because they are convinced that it will have no consequences.
It is more likely that sabotage and hybrid warfare operations will increase among Ukraine’s European allies. For example, we learned on Tuesday that the submarine cables which provide Internet connection to Lithuania and Sweden had been damaged. Everything indicates a maneuver directed from Moscow, which can be repeated with some frequency, with or without the support of its Chinese and Iranian allies.
The one who has not yet officially commented on the tense situation is President-elect Donald Trump, who these days is putting together his government team and walking with Elon Musk for the country. Long before he began the campaign, he had already promised that he could end the war in twenty-four hours and force both sides to reach a fair agreement. The truth is that since his election victory he has barely spoken about foreign policy and his appointments seem more aimed at managing the crisis in the Middle East than in Ukraine. Beyond the protocol call to Zelensky, also shared with Musk, his team did not want to reveal the steps it plans to achieve a peace which, as proposed, looks more like a surrender than ‘something else.
