According to Ukrainian military intelligence sources cited by the newspaper The economistkyiv is already preparing for what could be the biggest offensive of the war so far. Despite the enormous wear and tear that Russia has accumulated during these almost three years of military campaign, with enormous human and material losses, the army of Valeri Gerasimov continues to advance through the Donetsk region, surrounding Kurajovo in direction of Pokrovsk and surrounding the important town of Velyka. Novosilka in the north, east and south.
Capturing the city from which the counter-offensive in the summer of 2023 began should not be an easy task for Russian troops. Currently, they maintain a front that stretches from Kupiansk to Toretsk from north to south and from Vuhledar to the aforementioned Velyka Novosilka from east to west. This represents hundreds of kilometers and tens of thousands of soldiers with their respective equipment. The logistical effort involved in an operation of this scale is enormous.. Of course, if these advances were maintained, they would be located at the gates of the border with the Zaporizhia region, which would be a huge source of concern for Ukraine and its allies.
Concretely, from Velyka Novosilka to the capital of the region unilaterally annexed by Vladimir Putin in September 2022, there is a little more than 150 kilometers. The distance is considerable and, returning to the article in The Economist, the Kremlin would seek to increase its attack force to 130,000 soldiers just for the siege of one of the major centers of Russian-speaking Ukraine. It is very unlikely that he will achieve such a result, taking into account, as they say, the vast extension of the front, the need to defend the positions and the fact that tens of thousands of soldiers are still in Kursk to attempt to drive out Ukrainian troops. regiments positioned there since August.
The Russian army is large, but it is not infinite. Its limitations have been revealed throughout this war, and an alert Ukraine should be able to defend itself, if necessary, even without help from the incoming Trump administration. That said, anything that brings Russia closer to its goal will put it in a strong position to negotiate a ceasefire. The latest “peace” plan leaked by the Kremlin speaks of a partition of Ukraine into three: Russia would annex Kharkiv to Odessa, including Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Donetsk, Lugansk and Dnipro; kyiv and its environs would retain their nominal independence, like Vichy France, with a government placed by Moscow… and the western territories, led by Lviv, would retain their independence unless the Poles and Romanians decided to claim them.
NATO seeks to “change the trajectory of conflict”
Since the future US government remains unknown regarding the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the European Union and other NATO countries are now trying to establish a common position. This Tuesday, the 32 members of the Atlantic Alliance met the Ukrainian ambassador in Brussels to analyze the situation on the front and the nuclear threats made by Vladimir Putin before and after the launch of the new Oreshnik hypersonic missile.
The new general secretary, Marc Rutteinsisted at the end of the summit on the need to increase military aid to Ukraine, focusing on the delivery of more sophisticated air defense systems. Rutte, who met Donald Trump a few days ago, remains firm in the Alliance’s commitment to defending Ukraine’s territorial integrity despite the Kremlin’s apocalyptic rhetoric and the predictable American lukewarmness from January 20, 2025 , when the new administration begins its four years of work. .
“We must go further to change the trajectory of the conflict”said Rutte, in agreement with the general’s words Alexander Syrskyhead of the Ukrainian armed forces, who spoke this Tuesday of the need to launch a kind of counter-offensive. The truth is that Ukraine has been defending itself since September 2023, with the exception of the Kursk attack. Mentally, it is exhausting, and little by little this is felt in the morale of the fighters, who are more and more exhausted. Neither Rutte nor Syrsky wanted to specify what measures could be taken to change the current dynamics of the front.
France threatens to send troops
One option being considered in recent days would be to send troops directly to Ukraine to fight Russia. All this stems from statements to the BBC by the French Minister of Foreign Affairs, Jean-Noel Barrotin which he declares that Western allies should impose no limits on their aid to Ukraine. Asked if this included sending soldiers to Ukrainian soil to confront Russian soldiers – which in practice would mean, rhetoric aside, the start of World War III – Barrot replied that ‘”he did not exclude any possibility”.
The option of sending French troops to the front or, at least, of contributing to the work of stabilizing the rear, has been open for several months, since the President of the Republic, Emmanuel Macronwould get tired of Putin’s threats and publicly warn him that France is also a nuclear power and that no one was going to tell him which allies to choose or how to help them. However, the French position, which could well be a show of force rather than a real strategy for the future, is not shared by its European partners.
For example, the British Foreign Secretary, David Lamydeclared during a break at the G7 ministerial meeting in Fiuggi (Italy) that his country was not going to send troops to Ukraine, denying reports from The World which was pointing in the opposite direction. “I would like to make it clear that we remain committed to helping Ukraine, particularly in training its troops, but our position has always been not to send British soldiers to the battlefield and this has not changed today. today,” Lammy concluded, putting to rest any speculation.
Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur spoke in similar terms, stating that “Ukraine needs money for its military industry, not for foreign troops”. In statements to the newspaper The HillPevkur expressed his belief that Ukraine could defend itself “provided we give it all the means it needs in its fight against Russia”, while regretting the lack of support kyiv received last August, when she launched the attack on the Kursk region. , which, according to Pevkur, could have changed the fate of the war.
