Although Ukraine received ATACMS missiles, it was unable to use them against Russia until November 17, when US media reported that US President Joe Biden had changed his mind and given Ukraine permission to use these missiles on Russian territory. While this will not drastically change the situation on the Ukrainian front line, it will boost morale and strengthen their position ahead of the upcoming negotiations initiated by Donald Trump after January 20.
However, two difficult months lie ahead, writes The Economist.
The United States transferred HIMARS systems to Ukraine in the summer of 2022, but they were equipped only with shorter-range GPS-guided missiles. At the end of 2023, after more than a year of discussions, it was decided to provide Ukraine with ATACMS missiles with a range of 300 km. Ukraine has used these missiles to devastating effect in occupied territories, including Crimea, and in October two attacks destroyed nine helicopters. However, Ukraine was not allowed to use them for attacks on Russian territory, including airfields, ammunition depots and command posts.
Biden’s decision to limit the use of ATACMS had three reasons. The first is the limited supply of missiles, which the Pentagon believes are needed for military plans in other regions of the world, including North Korea.
The second is limited military use. In September, the Pentagon reported that 90% of Russian planes dropping bombs on Ukrainian positions had already moved east and were out of range of ATACMS.
The third reason is related to the risk of escalation. Ukraine has already used its own drones and missiles to attack Russian targets, for example destroying a significant amount of munitions in Toropets in September. However, the use of ATACMS requires US support in terms of reconnaissance and targeting. Dictator Vladimir Putin has said the use of Western missiles on Russian territory would be seen as “direct participation” in the conflict.
Ukraine and its supporters reject these arguments. They claim that the US stockpile of ATACMS amounts to more than 1,000 units and that they are gradually being replaced by new, longer-range missiles. While Russian aircraft may be out of range, other targets remain, such as warehouses, command posts and logistics centers.
The main targets are Russian helicopters and attack aircraft supporting the troops, the former Ukrainian officer said. They believe fears of escalation are exaggerated, as Russia has not yet reacted sharply to attacks on Crimea, which it considers its territory, or to the supply of Western weapons.
Biden’s decision raises three key questions. The first has to do with the scale of his policy change. It is reported that Ukraine in the early stages can only use ATACMS in the Kursk region, where it controls the territories that Russia is trying to return. This may be a signal to North Korea, which is providing assistance to the Russian Federation. Western officials are concerned that this could lead to a regular supply of missiles. From a military point of view, such restrictions are impractical if the goal is to inflict maximum damage on the Russian military machine before January 20, when Trump takes office.
The second issue is related to the possible reaction of Great Britain and France, which could allow Ukraine to use its Storm Shadow and SCALP missiles on Russian territory. These missiles, like ATACMS, require significant Western input to target. British officials had previously been cautious on the issue without US consent, but may now change their position. France is likely to do the same.
The decision could pressure German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to reconsider his refusal to provide Taurus missiles to Ukraine. He may face criticism from the opposition, but he has already confirmed his position in the Bundestag.
The third and most important question concerns Putin’s reaction. A Kremlin spokesman said this “adds fuel to the fire” and will lead to “a new spiral of tension.” Fears of nuclear escalation are likely overblown.
However, Russia has hinted at increasing support for the Houthis in Yemen, who have been bombing ships in the Red Sea. There are also concerns that Russia could increase sabotage in Europe.
Biden can hope that Putin does not take aggressive steps to preserve the possibility of a deal with Trump next year. Trump reportedly spoke to Putin by phone and urged him not to escalate the conflict. The Kremlin denies these reports, but the largest airstrikes took place on November 17, disrupting Ukraine’s power grid and killing 18 people.
Previously, Kursor reported that a demonstration of solidarity with Ukraine would be held in Tel Aviv.
