Rustam Karakhanli writes…
The Putin-Pashinyan meeting held in Moscow within the framework of the meeting of the CIS Council of Heads of State concluded with a regional sensation: Armenians will protect the Armenian-Iranian border together with Russian border guards. Furthermore, only Armenians will sit at the starting point on the border with Iran. Since August 1 of this year, Moscow has left border services at Yerevan airport in the hands of the Armenians, so a question arises: Is Moscow handing over Yerevan or Russia’s trade with Armenia at the expense of sovereignty from Armenia?
It does not seem credible that Moscow would abandon Armenia at a time when it is strengthening itself in Georgia and advancing on the Ukrainian front. In addition to the fact that the lease of the military base in Gyumri is long-term, statements by Russian officials after yesterday’s meeting confirm this. Dmitry Peskov, Vladimir Putin’s aide, says that the issue of the “Zangazur Corridor” was probably discussed at the meeting of heads of state. This means that the Kremlin accepts the term “Zanguezur Corridor”, which at least in Armenia throws stones and grabs its head. Calling the global transportation route connecting the western part of Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan a “corridor” by two of the three signatories of the Trilateral Declaration of November 10, 2020 is a bitter reality for the West and, albeit paradoxically, for Tehran , more than for Yerevan. Apart from Peskov, the statement by Deputy Prime Minister A. Overchuk that communications can only be restored with the participation of Russia is the final nail in the coffin of the problem. In politics, it is impossible nonsense for the weak side to take something from the strong in exchange for nothing. Therefore, there is no doubt that the Armenian border guards will not sit at the checkpoint on the border with Iran…
In the context of Moscow and Yerevan’s progress in the new regional configuration, Tehran appears to be the only loser. Iran’s “red line” actually runs from Zangezur to its border. The concept of a border between two states is already a “red line.” Iran, which “projected” this line from within Armenia and planned to strengthen itself in the region at least to this extent due to its economic expansion, will eventually see “red” on its border. As they say, your order has been delivered to your address!
As if this was lost, it is also a mystery who will stand in front of Iran along the “red line.” USAID, the largest agency of the US government, recently announced that it has taken charge of strengthening Armenia’s borders and technical supplies. About 20 million dollars have been allocated for this. This is just the official figure. In the reality where there are reports that Washington is intensifying its military presence in Armenia and even creating a de facto base in the region, it is not only not an exception, but even an expected scenario that one day Iran will see the “shaytan- i bozorg” on the other end of your beloved line. Russia can only be a situational ally with Iran. Historically they have been rivals, especially over the current territory of Armenia. In this sense, the Putin-Pashinyan meeting was a “red” surprise for Iran, faced by the Zangezur corridor: on the other side of the line are USAID, American military instructors and European “observers”, whose number has increased. from 138 to 600 people. So far no one has guaranteed that they will leave Armenia after signing the final peace with Azerbaijan.
Russia is changing the traditional policy of solving geopolitical problems by military means; “soft power” tools have also been added to the menu. Moscow is represented in Armenia not only by its military presence, but also by its economic influence: from gas distribution infrastructure to railway lines. And, of course, the commercial turnover, which has increased over the past two years due to the war in Ukraine and will reach $14 billion by the end of the year. Is the West or Russia the true partner of Pashinyan and Armenia? The answer must be found in the numbers.
In this context, the topic discussed yesterday at the meeting of the Foreign Ministers of Russia and Armenia has a special symbolic meaning. Sergei Lavrov asks Ararat Mirzoyan if the “quadrobers”, a manifestation of recent times, are also present in Armenia. “Quadrober” refers to teenagers and young adults who dress in animal clothing and behave accordingly. Mirzoya’s confirmation that he is familiar with such a case is a sign that he caught Lavrov’s hint in the sky. For Lavrov, Armenia is just a Russian outpost posing as Western, a “quadroberry” in modern terminology. Colony, outpost, “quadroberry”…
