Minority but still standing. Justin Trudeau’s Canadian government survived Tuesday 1Ahem October, to a second motion of censure in as many weeks presented in Parliament by his main rival. The 207-121 vote was largely a repeat of the Conservatives’ failed attempt last week to call an early parliamentary election, and saw two small factions in Parliament side with the Liberal government.
The motion’s text blamed the Liberals for failing to address the housing shortage, rising crime and rising costs of living, and for being “the most centralizing government in Canadian history”.
With a twenty-point lead in the polls, conservative leader Pierre Poilievre is behind this motion that comes at a time when Justin Trudeau is in a weak position and while legislative elections must be held at the end of October 2025.
Fractured parliament
In power for nine years, the Liberal Party has suffered political setbacks since early summer. A few weeks ago, the Canadian prime minister lost the support of his main leftist ally, who put an end to the political agreement intended to support him. At the polls, his party has also recently lost seats in some of its strongholds.
But as with the first vote of no confidence in Parliament, the Conservatives failed to gain the support of the two other opposition parties needed to overthrow the government. The Canadian House of Commons currently has 153 Liberal MPs, 119 Conservative MPs, 33 Bloc Québécois MPs, 25 New Democratic Party (NDP/Left) MPs, two Greens and four Independents.
Most analysts believe the government should be able to hold out until spring 2025, as smaller parties need time to prepare for new elections and the country traditionally does not hold elections in winter due to the weather. But some experts point out that “everything is possible”with the liberal minority struggling to control a fractured Parliament.
