The Republican elephant returns to the White House in the United States. After a tight electoral campaign lasting just over 100 days between Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump, the tycoon won the country’s presidency. Reactions to Trump’s victory resonate in the strongholds of the European Union, in the X-rated stories of leaders like Viktor Orbán in Hungary or Volodímir Zelensky in Ukraine, but also in Africa, where Trump’s return raises expectations throughout the continent.
From Morocco, King Mohamed VI congratulated Donald Trump on his election and predicted “broader horizons” in bilateral relations between the two countries. Other regional powers such as South Africa, Nigeria and Kenya joined in the congratulations. Precisely, the latter country is one of the great allies of the United States on the continent, especially after the designation of the nation as “main ally outside of NATO” during the mandate of Joe Biden. Other leaders, such as those of Ethiopia, Egypt, Somalia, Burundi and Guinea-Bissau, joined in the recognition and diplomatic congratulations.
Beyond Morocco’s project in the Sahara
In December 2020, Donald Trump became the first leader of a Western country to recognize Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara. Washington linked its decision to the formalization at the same time of the tripartite agreement between Morocco, the United States and Israel, through which Israel and Morocco reestablished their relations in different areas suspended for decades.
Even though American recognition of the Moroccan identity of the Sahara was maintained during Biden’s mandate, the Rabat plan was not put into practice. It is now, with the return of Trump, that an extension of diplomatic, economic and military relations is expected, among which the opening of an American consulate in Dakhla (Western Sahara) stands out, as well as the extension of military maneuvers and exercises. called African lion towards Western Sahara. African lion is U.S. Army Africa Command’s largest military exercise, taking place in Morocco, Ghana, Senegal and Tunisia.
The US plan to establish a diplomatic delegation in Dakhla was first announced on December 10, 2020, following a conversation between King Mohammed VI and Trump. A few days later, on December 24, the US Secretary of State announced the establishment of a “virtual presence station” as a first step towards the creation of the new diplomatic mission.
From now on, and according to the Geopolitical Horizons Institute (IGH), the opening could take place throughout the month of November, in the absence of official confirmation. Yet despite the U.S. political shift, the same report notes that the timing of this inauguration appears to have more to do with French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent state visit and the expected announcement of the opening of a French consulate in El Laâyoune.
On the other hand, according to Moroccan media Morocco World NewsUS President-elect George Lombardi’s top adviser has suggested that a second Trump administration could permanently end the Western Sahara conflict, leading Algeria and the Polisario Front to negotiate the terms of a political settlement.
Security and conservative discourse
During the last two years of the Biden administration (2021-2025), the United States was overwhelmed by the wave of coups in West Africa and, more particularly, in the Sahel; due to the decline of human rights, the absence of democracy and the emergence of other foreign actors such as Russia and China.
“Despite the fact that during Trump’s first term the African continent remained in the background in the media, notable movements were made in terms of security and terrorism,” explains the professor at the University of Girona and analyst politics of African and political issues. from the African Studies Group (GEA), Sebastián Ruiz Cabrera, in a conversation with elDiario.es.
The researcher especially highlights the role played by the Trump administration (2017-2021) in the fight against terrorist groups like Boko Haram in Nigeria and considers that he “will continue to give priority” to this fight during his second term. However, the same story does not repeat itself when considering Somalia and the fight against Al Shabab. In this case, in 2020, Trump ordered the withdrawal of US troops from the Horn of Africa country in early 2021, jeopardizing efforts to combat the jihadist group – a move that Biden later reversed.
In addition, “Trump has demonstrated a very pragmatic style in his international relations, particularly with authoritarian or populist regimes. This could undoubtedly benefit some African leaders, rightly criticized for their lack of democracy, such as in Egypt, Uganda and Cameroon,” explains Ruiz Cabrera.
In recent years, certain countries such as Uganda, Ghana and Mali have criminalized homosexuality, following a conservative trend close to the values of the Republican Party, contrary to the ideological bases of the Democratic Party.
Geopolitical Council with China
On the economic front, Trump will probably accentuate his trade rivalry with China on the African scene. The Republican’s foreign policy is defined by safeguarding American interests: “The United States will fight for its geopolitical interests through economic tools,” explains the professor from the University of Girona. Among these tools, the professor highlights the offer of financial alternatives more favorable to the concerns of African countries regarding the debts contracted with China. Between 2000 and 2009, China exempted approximately 3.2 billion euros of debt from payment; and renegotiated an additional debt of 14.15 billion with African countries.
Currently, China, the world’s second largest economy, is the main trading partner of the African continent and accesses reserves of natural resources such as gold, lithium, copper and rare earths. “China is developing a global macro-project with the New Silk Road initiative which aims to create modern infrastructure in Africa in exchange for resource concessions. Even if Donald Trump will not be able to compete with the Chinese project, he will use the economic resources at his disposal,” adds Ruiz Cabrera.
The geographic location of countries like Somalia, Djibouti and Ethiopia is of geopolitical interest to foreign actors, including the United States. Under the first Trump administration, recognition of Somaliland was proposed, which could lead to the activation of a regional conflict between Egypt, Somalia, Eritrea and Ethiopia. Ruiz Cabrera explains to elDiario.es that “at the moment there has been no formal recognition of the independence of Somaliland”. “Security relations and anti-terrorism cooperation will continue to be a priority with possible economic incentives,” he concludes.
