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Republican expectations and Democratic hopes in Congress, the other big issue of the elections

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Republican expectations and Democratic hopes in Congress, the other big issue of the elections

The back room of the bar where he hung out in the small town of Beatrice, in southeastern Nebraska, was very empty when Dan Osborn walked in on Saturday, November 2. Unperturbed, the independent candidate, who is running for a seat in the United States Senate, invites the handful of men in caps and plaid shirts who had come to listen to him to sit around a table. He asks them his questions before ranting against the weight of economic interests and money in American politics.

A conversation begins about the origin of his campaign funds and the massive customs taxes promised by the Republican candidate, Donald Trump. “which could be a solution” according to him to keep jobs “as long as they are calibrated in such a way that they do not fall on the consumer”.

This mechanic and trade unionist, who previously worked in the Navy and in his state’s national guard, is a grain of sand in the electoral machine that should allow the Republican Party to regain control of the Senate in Washington. Questioned, he assures that, if elected, he will remain ” independent “ and that will decide based on the content of the texts, “so that [sa] the voice retains the greatest weight ».

Read also | US presidential elections: how “gerrymandering”, a partisan electoral division, changes the outcome of an election

Dan Osborn, who speaks dressed down and plain, is more than just a figure in voting intentions against outgoing Republican Senator Deb Fischer. The latter hoped for a comfortable re-election, after having forgotten her promise not to run for a third term. Although the Republican candidate remains the favorite, the presence of the independent candidate disturbs his side and rejoices the Democratic Party, which did not present a candidate and is attending this unexpected battle as a spectator.

Outgoing Democratic senators are particularly exposed

The Republican strategists of the Grand Old Party (GOP) know that the partial renewal of the Senate (34 seats out of 100) that will be held on November 5 is especially favorable to them. The first good news was recorded in November 2023, with the decision not to run again for the candidacy of Senator Joe Manchin, former Democratic governor of West Virginia, whose iconoclastic positions, particularly on energy issues, had allowed him to be re-elected in 2018 in a solidly Republican State.

The withdrawal of this elected official, who continued to negotiate hard for his vote during Joe Biden’s term and completed his term as an independent, guarantees that the Republican Party will gain a seat. In this way, it places the two parties on equal footing, with 50 senators each.

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