Inner Mongolia consumes the most electricity than any other landmass in China and is the country’s main coal hub. At the same time, green electricity production in the autonomous region has become cheaper than coal generation and green centers are being created there, which will supply both the province itself and China’s coastal industrial centers. Such changes could affect coal imports into the country, something Russia appears to be well aware of.
Inner Mongolia is the leader in energy consumption growth in China and the land region that consumes the most energy in the country. In 2023, the demand of the autonomous community was 472 TWh, and its peak load was 72 GW. This is more than in all of Great Britain.
In this situation, other green electricity production centers are actively developing in China’s main coal center. The study, “Main Clean Energy Hubs in China’s Inner Mongolia,” by China’s WaterRock Energy Economics and Finland’s Center for Research on Clean Energy and Air (CREA), said solar and wind capacity had increased by 88 GW over the decade, with another 170 GW under investigation. development.
“It is also planned to build four Sha-Ge-Huang clean energy centers. “Each will have 8 GW of solar, 4 GW of wind, 4 GW of auxiliary coal and a dedicated UHVDC link.” – says the study. According to analysts, between 65% and 70% of the electricity generated will be exported to load centers, energy-intensive industrial coastal regions.
Executive Vice President of Inner Mongolia Huang Zhiqiang said in June that the region accounts for more than half of the country’s exploited wind resources and more than a fifth of its solar resources. By 2025, the renewable energy capacity in Inner Mongolia will exceed the capacity of thermal power plants, he said. And to supply green electricity to the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the Yangtze River Delta, six power plant centers with a total capacity of more than 60 GW will be created in the autonomous region. Huang Zhiqiang estimated the investment at $11 billion.
Supply to energy-intensive regions is facilitated by numerous modern power lines that are not used at their full capacity (only 40%).
The average cost of green electricity from new projects (LCOE) is already lower than that of coal, the researchers calculated: 0.3 yuan (about 4 rubles) per kWh for solar and 0.31 yuan ( 4.1 rubles) per kWh for wind electricity versus 0.42 (5.58 ) for coal.
“Excluding the cost of CO2 emissions, the levelized cost of electricity for new solar and wind projects will be approximately 10% cheaper than new coal projects in China in 2022. Taking into account lower material costs in 2023 and 2024, cost savings increased to approximately 20% for solar projects and 16% for wind projects.” – says the study.
“With its abundant wind and solar resources, Inner Mongolia is in an excellent position to help China accelerate the pace of decarbonization of its energy sector. “The expansion of large-scale clean energy production centers in arid, desert and arid regions will not only optimize ‘unused’ land, but will also generate important revenue streams for local governments, painting a promising picture for the future of renewable energy in China,” wrote analysts at WaterRock Energy Economics and CREA.
They believe China is moving in the right direction to reach its maximum declared carbon emissions by 2030 and net zero emissions by 2060.
The growth of green electricity production in Inner Mongolia and electricity exports to energy-intensive industrial regions pose a threat to foreign thermal coal suppliers. Even for the Russians, for whom China is the main market. Especially after the start of the SVO in Ukraine, when the West banned the import of coal from Russia.
Obviously, Moscow is ready for the development of green power plants in China.
“According to the results of the first half of the year, coal exports from the Russian Federation to China decreased by 8% to 45.5 million tons. We are currently on a plateau and sharp growth is not expected. The tariffs imposed by China on Russian coal are having an impact, as are the fall in world prices and the increase in logistics and production costs for coal miners in recent years, and China is trying to eliminate the imbalance in the energy sector by investing in renewable energy sources”, – Russian Energy Minister told TASS Sergei Tsivilev. In his opinion, energy coal exports may decrease next year, but coking coal (for metallurgy) may increase.
“I believe that in 2030 India will be the leader in purchases of Russian coal, and within 20 years the majority of purchases will come from Southeast Asia (Taiwan, Vietnam, etc.),” added the head of the Ministry of Energy. .
