The central bank is included in this second semester in a well -known dimension. The fact that it has little reservation, and in front of the second half of the year, where there will be a lower supply of dollars and high demand, this is family land for Argentina in recent years.
The growth of economic activity will accelerate imports, the exchange assessment will increase broadcasting, and previous legislative elections will lead to a portfolio dollar, which will affect the central treasury.
Gross reserves closed on Tuesday for 39,168 million dollars, which implied a fall of $ 2552 million. The United States compared with the closure on Monday, since the treasure sent money abroad to disclose 2385 million US dollars corresponding to global and 165 million US dollars in euros. Meanwhile, today the treasury of BCRA is suffering a new failure in the amount of $ 1,600 million for the payment of interests and capital Bonars.
According to market analysts, pure reserves will fall about 4000 million dollars. USA for the payment of coupons and capital names AL29, AL30, GD29, GD30 and GD46. Meanwhile, gross will fall less, because most of these payments will be for residents -investors, which will lead to an increase in private deposits in dollars and, therefore, lace.
Then the evolution of reserves will depend on what investors do with these dollars. “If they reinvestment in Argentine assets, this part will remain in reserves, but if they decide to turn them abroad, they will ultimately leave,” explains Federico Machado, an economist in the observatory policy for the national economy (open).
“Looking against the background of January of this year (a similar coupon), we could assume that 30% of dollars can remain as a reservation through various channels, which mainly minimally enters into force of banks in BCRA,” says Javier Oxeniuk, executive director of the LCG consultant.
But the market goes beyond the payment of coupons. In the medium -term horizon, reserves will exert pressure using the lower elimination of Agro, increase imports and a constant flow of dollars on tourism.
“It will be difficult. The treasure has a debt repayment for another 4000 million US dollars throughout the entire semester, and BCRA is faced with borleal repayment terms for $ 1,000 million. This consumes all the pure reserves that BCRA currently owns is not free access to the protection of an excellent group, ”Machado said.
Okseniuk, on the other hand, agrees that “the dynamics of reserves will be difficult, taking into account these payments, much more moderate settlement of agriculture, the import of goods that should be growing, and emissive tourism, which will remain strong.”
“Much will also depend on how this panorama reads the market. I think that even with the victory of the government in the elections in September and October, this evolution of external accounts can stimulate the dynamics that comes to the dollar near the upper strip, ”he added.
If you fail to go to international markets before the end of the year, the government will have to accumulate $ 4,000 million to pay coupons in January 2026. In an unstable and uncertain international context, where Donald Trump guarantees that commercial tariffs will grow again from August 1, that the country risks, today at 698 points, will decrease by 50%.
“If the government does not receive a foreign currency with the market, the resources received from the IMF and international organizations are not turned upside down, it will not be enough to satisfy all needs,” Machado warns.
