Last September 299,683 membership withdrawals due to resignation were recordedmaximum in the historical series after growth of 7.8% in interannual terms. Two225,224 corresponded to workers with a permanent contract. During the first nine months of the year, a total of 2.2 million resignations have accumulated, a figure that represents an increase of 3.3% compared to a year ago and 58% since the reform of work. Those of permanent employees have increased by 232% since 2021, to 1.7 million, even if those of temporary workers began to strengthen last year. All this represents a change in the rules of the labor market game which This compounds the reported labor shortage in sectors such as hospitality, commerce and construction.
What was then considered as a collateral and temporary effect of the labor reform was confirmed three years later as one of the axes of professional relations in a labor market. with the highest unemployment in Europe, but in which more and more companies are reporting a shortage of workers, particularly in view of hiring for the Christmas campaign.
Initially, the increase in voluntary departures was seen as consistent with the legal change agreed by the government, employers and unions, which also coincided with a context of intense employment reactivation after the pandemic. Thus, the greater possibilities of obtaining a permanent contract explain why many temporary workers have resigned. to your job without waiting for it to expirewhile new permanent hires provided many more options for choosing other jobs if the conditions of the one they had just found did not convince them.
What has not happened is a “flight” of permanent workers with the greatest accumulated seniority. Even if their weight has decreased, which testifies to a change in the composition of employment and in the distribution of employment opportunities, as we have reported in elEconomista.es, they remain by far the workers who resist most to change, which distances them from others. Spanish case of the idea of the “Great Renunciation” between 2012 and mid-2023 This has affected major economies around the world.
But the main difference for Spain is its high unemployment rate. This led experts to predict that the escalation of resignations not only would this be stopped, but it would be reversedonce activity in the sectors affected by the health crisis has returned to normal and the labor market has adapted to the new legislation. Ultimately, giving up a job (especially permanent) in a country where the unemployment rate reaches 11.7% and where 56% of contracts signed are temporary does not seem to be a very sustainable trend in the medium term. But this prediction was contradicted by the data..
Over the first nine months of the year, resignations increased by 3.2% and 4.3% among permanent employees. This is a much more moderate rebound than that of previous years, but it is very far from the decline expected three years ago. Especially when similar trends in other countries, such as the United States, have long been reversing. How can we explain then that this phenomenon persists in a country where the unemployment rate is almost triple that of the United States?
Over the past three years, various explanations have been sought for a phenomenon on which data is relatively scarce – those published by Social Security only reach 2012 – but confirm that the turning point occurs with the legal change at the end of 2021.
Between 2012 and 2019, voluntary withdrawals continued to increase, although during this period they were carried out by temporary employees. Something logical if we take into account that these are jobs with an expiration date and that employees They feel less “bound” by factors such as job tenure, which effectively discourage permanent employment.. Its increase is also consistent with an economic recovery trajectory that has relied more intensely on temporary jobs than on permanent jobs.
Even if the pandemic brought this development to a complete halt due to the paralysis of activity and employment, the first phase of recovery made it possible to quickly return to a situation which was exactly the same as that of 2019, without leaving any trace of the unexpected wave of resignations. . which has started to spread to other economies. The radical change takes place from December 2021.
The labor reform eliminates the modality of temporary work and service contracts and establishes limits on the chaining of other temporary modalities, resulting in an unprecedented rebound in permanent hiring and an increase in the number of members having a permanent job. It must be taken into account that Social Security data works in the opposite way to hiring data, since they reflect the “stock” of employees, and not the entries and exits which are much more volatile. Before the reform, permanent workers were already in the majority, with 63.7% of those affiliated to the General Scheme. Since then, they have climbed to 78.5%.
However, permanent employees have never been the protagonists of resignations until 2022, which is particularly shocking in an aspect that dismantles one of the first explanations of the phenomenon: temporary resignations have not increased temporarily. This means that the resignations are not due to temporary workers looking for better jobs.but to the new temporary workers who did not seem satisfied with what they found. But does that mean they found better jobs?
A researcher’s analysis of Fedéa, Florentino Felguerosowith data from the Continuous Sample of Professional Lives (MCVL) 2022, calls this point into question: 6 out of ten resignations did not result in a change of job and 36% of those who did found themselves with a lower salary. It is true that these data correspond to a complex exercise: sectors such as construction and, above all, hospitality and commerce, resumed their activity after the pandemic and found that a large number of their “regular” workers had migrated during the years of confinement towards other activities. .
In addition, they had to face the complexity of adapting the characteristics of their work to the standard, which allows only two exceptions: the public sector (where it does not apply) and the artistic sector (for which a new “ad hoc” contract system was created). Construction has a “job attached” contract which facilitates the termination of contracts when one project ends and the worker cannot be integrated into another, but at a cost (on average 25 days per year) higher than dismissal for objective reasons. (20 days) or let temporary work expire (12 days per year).
The idea that this adaptation coincided with social problems (such as greater awareness of conciliation) and demographic problems (the available young labor force, as well as that of immigrants, had been reduced) was consistent with the findings of Felgueroso, just as the possibility of a that many of these workers were permanent discontinuous workers who, simply, They were looking for a job that guaranteed a more sustainable activity.
The challenge of retaining workers
Which does not mean that this will continue in 2023 and 2024, when the economy will have returned to normal activity (including the arrival of immigrants) and the labor market will have had to get used to the new legal rules of the game. and social. And the problem is thatResignations of permanent employees are increasing again. In September, 13% more were recorded than a year ago. This indicates a decline for more labor-intensive sectors.
Spain has a record number of people employed, but unemployment is far from its minimum. This means that a significant percentage of available labor cannot find a place in the job market. The statements published by Social Security do not detail in which sectors the employees who resign work, but taking into account the fact that the hotel industry, construction and commerce represent 30% of employment, we assume that they have a high weight. Added to this are sectors with difficult working conditions and low wages, such as auxiliary services and health and social activities (not so much among doctors or nurses, but among caregivers, social workers and counselors).
But when we talk about this problem, the most cited example is technology professionals. Even if they have a reduced weight in employment (only 3.9%, almost five times less than trade), are one of the most requested positions in an urgent digitalization process. The lack of experts means they have much more power to change jobs if conditions don’t convince them.
However, analyzes from organizations such as the Bank of Spain focus on the lack of labor in construction, hospitality and commerce. The activities, especially the last two, with a marked seasonal character and which are not associated with qualified workers.
A SEPE report published in the first quarter of 2024 attributed the lack of labor in construction, hospitality and commerce to “precariousness”, defined not only by low wages, but also by poor working conditions. work: highlighting the hours and the “hardness” of the work. positions as notable factors. This analysis explains not only why an unemployed person refuses certain jobs, but also why a worker, even if he has a permanent contract, is more likely to abandon it. Above all, if you lose nothing by having reduced seniority Don’t even worry about getting severance pay.
Although all have increased salaries since 2022, partly thanks to the increase in the interprofessional minimum wage, but also to the updating of collective agreements, the problems in finding workers have not been reduced and this also means, as is the case with qualified professionalswhich makes it increasingly difficult to retain them. And this, even if the high unemployment rate should discourage workers from leaving.
An unexpected scenario for many companies which have increased permanent hiring, but are now finding that it is their employees who are leaving. A new reality which reveals the challenge it represents for activities which, historically, on which depended to adapt to the new legislation is much deeper than simply replacing temporary contracts with permanent contracts.
