The geopolitical panorama and its direct link with the price of oil is one of the issues influencing the fixed income market, along with macroeconomic data and the resulting expectations of interest rate cuts. Currently, uncertainty surrounds each of these issues, with the situation not improving in the Middle East and inflation that could change the pace of rate cuts, at least in the United States. With all this in mind, sales are once again the protagonists of the bond market this week, with yields at maximum levels in the month of July in the case of T-Note, the American debt at ten years, and at the beginning of September in the Bund, its German counterpart.
The ten-year American paper reached a yield of 4.08% on Friday at the close of the European market, after an increase of 7 basis points over the last five days, and it is the bond at this maturity which is increasing the more the yield in this interval. The investor who purchased US debt on January 1 would today face losses of 1.5% per price. On the German debt side, the An investor who purchased these securities at the start of the year would today face losses of 2.2% per price.
German debt recorded an increase of 3 basis points in its yield over the last five days, and Spanish paper with a maturity of a decade, increases by 1 basis point and closes at the level of 3.02% . Further expanding the picture on the debt market, the basket of major global bonds with different maturities it includes slight losses of 0.15% in performance from January 1 to today, based on the global sovereign debt index of Bloomberg.
Although the overall outlook remains shrouded in uncertainty, the debt curve is normalizing, with yields falling in the shorter segments and rising in the longer segments.
The decisions that will be taken at meetings like that of the ECB next week have a great weight in these movements, with a market that is already anticipating the decision of the European body to reduce the reference rate by an additional 25 basis points, although there is diversity of opinion among analysts. , with some believing that no drop will be made in the next match.
