Concern about immigration is soaring in Spain. The latest barometer from the Centre for Sociological Research (CIS), in July, reveals that 16.9% of society placed it among their most important concerns, almost ten points more than a year earlier, when it was cited by only 7%. This increase, however, does not correspond to a significant increase in the arrivals of foreigners in the country. But it coincides with the worsening of the xenophobic political discourses of the PP and Vox and the emergence of a new far-right formation.
A review of CIS reports from recent decades reveals an upward trend in recent years. In January 2022, concern about immigration barely exceeded 2%. In surveys, it is placed well below other issues such as the economy, housing or health. Concern has gradually intensified and was among the top ten concerns of citizens in November 2023.
This summer, it was already the fourth concern of the Spanish, after unemployment, political problems in general and the economic crisis, and it reached its highest figure in the last 15 years. Immigration has become a major concern of Spanish society, especially after 2006, with the so-called Cayuco crisis, which caused a sharp increase in the arrival of migrants on the coasts of the Canary Islands. And then this perception reached a peak in 2018, coinciding with the emergence of Vox at the forefront of Spanish politics with its racist speeches.
The data show that immigration is at the center of the priorities of the Spanish when the political arena debates this issue. At present, this coincides with a peak of saturation in the reception centers for migrant minors in the Canary Islands and Ceuta, and occurs in the middle of the debate on the reform of the immigration law that PP and Junts overturned a month ago in Congress. The government, in collaboration with the Executive of the Canary Islands, was looking for a stable formula for the distribution of migrant minors to other autonomies, but was unable to approve it and is currently studying other ways to approach this legislation.
The CEI data also coincide with an increase in xenophobia in political discourse. In recent months, Spain has seen the emergence of a new far-right party, Se Acabó La Fiesta, led by Alvise Pérez, which feeds mainly on racist hoaxes to criminalize the migrant population. In the last European elections, this party won three seats and just over 800,000 votes.
What happened in Mocejón (Toledo) ten days ago shows how the far-right leader operates. A 20-year-old man allegedly murdered a minor in the town. Before the details of the investigation were revealed, the MEP spoke on his Telegram channel about a nearby mosque and suggested that the attacker was an immigrant. The information was proven false within hours, when the Civil Guard arrested the murderer.
In the midst of the emergence of this new extreme right phenomenon and in constant competition with Vox, which has deepened, if possible, its racist messages, the PP has taken a turn in its discourse in recent months. During the electoral campaign in Catalonia for the elections last May, its leader, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, attacked “illegal immigration” that “occupies” homes and linked the arrival of migrants to delinquency, in the manner of Santiago Abascal’s party.
And the Alliança Catalana party, which was fined a few days ago for stating that “in an Islamic Catalonia there would be gang rapes, genital mutilation and forced marriages,” won two seats and 118,302 votes. This group and Vox took advantage of the campaign to incite xenophobia at a time when, as in the rest of the state, Catalan society considers immigration one of its main problems.
The latest barometer from the Centre d’Estudis d’Opinion de Catalunya indicates that half of the respondents consider that there are too many immigrants and that immigration laws are too flexible. The perception changes depending on the vote: among the supporters of the Catalan Alliance, these values rise to 97% of the respondents. And 88%, among those of Vox.
The perception of immigration in Spanish society has been deteriorating over the months without the data showing a significant change in trend: growth has been constant since the end of the economic crisis in 2008. Nor is the peak of concern in July linked, for example, to an extraordinary increase in immigrant arrivals in the Canary Islands or Ceuta and Melilla. In January and February, when arrivals actually increased year-on-year, concern was not as high as in recent months.
The data also show that since 2015, the two countries that have contributed the most immigrants are Colombia and Venezuela, the latter being well received by the right. Specifically, taking that year as a reference, 357,000 people arrived from the Caribbean country and 292,000 from Morocco. The same paradox that occurs with the perception of the progress of the economy is also found in the CIS barometers. When respondents are asked about the problems that affect them personally, immigration falls several notches in the ranking.
Society perceives that there is much more immigration than there is in reality
A recent study by the Iseak Foundation, based on a survey of a sample of more than 3,000 people, shows a significant gap between the population’s perception and reality. Citizens generally think that there are many more immigrants than actually live in Spain, that they work much less than they do and that they receive much more social assistance than they actually do.
A Vox electoral advertisement during the Madrid 2021 campaign compared, with false data, the help received by unaccompanied minors (illustrated by a balaclava and a hood) with that of a retired grandmother.
According to the study, in Spain, citizens believe that the immigrant population reaches 27.8% of the total population, while the real percentage is ten points lower. And those surveyed believe that 50% of the population receives social assistance, while the real figure is 10%.
The study does not determine whether there is a direct relationship between an increase in racist or xenophobic political discourse and greater social animosity against immigration, but it does detect some biases. “In general, we are completely wrong,” says Odra Quesada, a postdoctoral researcher at Iseak, referring to society’s difficulties in correctly perceiving the reality of immigration. “But people with a university education, those with a left-wing ideology and also those from the upper classes – depending on the level of education – make fewer mistakes,” he explains about the study.
The CEI also identifies a greater concern about immigration based on ideological prejudices. It is cited by 43% of Vox voters, 13.41% of PP voters, 12% of PSOE voters and only 2.1% of Sumar voters. It also shows a decrease in concern as the level of education increases.
What Iseak’s work observes is a correlation between incorrect perceptions of immigration and misinformation and hoaxes. According to Quesada, to carry out the study, they divided the sample into two groups. The first received the questionnaire, which lasted about twenty minutes, without any prior instructions. The second saw two academic texts containing objective data on the subject. The subsequent responses were not only closer to reality, but also showed a greater predisposition to public integration policies and, in general, a more positive attitude towards the phenomenon.
This is why one of the proposals proposed by the work to try to reduce this gap is a campaign in institutes and schools to train the young population in hoax detection tools. “What other countries are doing is learning to identify disinformation in pre-university education and determining which words are usually used in misleading, decontextualized information, etc.,” adds Quesada.
“In Spain, this is extremely important because a large proportion of the voters who now join anti-immigration parties are a fairly young group,” he explains. The CIS data also support this: the segment of the population most concerned about immigration is that of 18-24 year-olds: 21.2% of those surveyed mentioned it.
