Up to 20 million people will be forced to leave the coastal areas of the Mediterranean and scroll sea level rise planned for the year 2100 if the measures are not implemented in time. This will also mean “serious risks” for sectors such as seaside tourism, agriculture or fishing and for infrastructure such as transport networks or cultural heritage sites.
These are the conclusions of the report on climate and risks in coastal areas published this Monday by the Mediterranean experts in climate and environmental change (MedECCfor its acronym in English). The text also warns that the rate of increase in the level of the Mediterranean is 2.8 millimetersdouble the 20th century average. By the end of this century, average sea level is expected to rise by one meter.
In the opinion of experts, this will increase the flood risk linked to storms and will also cause permanent flooding in some areas along the Mediterranean coasts. In an average emissions situation, the report warns that it is likely that extreme events linked to sea level, which occur once every 100 years, increase in frequency by at least 10% in 2050 and 22% in 2100.
In this study, they participated 55 authors from 17 countries and among its coordinators is María Carmen Llasat, professor of applied physics at the University of Barcelona (UB). Throughout the investigation, the authors expressed their belief that it was “very likely” that the surface air temperatures in the Mediterranean region continue to increase more than the global average.
At the same time, they considered it very possible that the frequency and intensity of extreme temperatures and evapotranspiration will continue to increase and that precipitation will decrease as greenhouse gas emissions are reduced. greenhouse obtained in the future. On the other hand, the researchers emphasized that the increase in temperature will make it reach the ecosystem adaptation limit of the area when 3ºC is reached, which will lead to greater environmental degradation and make the management of the water resources. In addition, they explain, we must add to this that the Mediterranean is the largest tourist destination in the world, which increases the pressure.
Marine heatwaves are also expected to become more frequent in the future. As the report states, these heatwaves increased carbon emissions and encouraged the appearance of non-native tropical species and, at the same time, also caused mass death episodes which affected corals, sponges, molluscs, bryozoans and echinoderms.
Finally, they highlighted that the Mediterranean is one of the areas most contaminated by plastic waste of the world. Specifically, plastics account for up to 82% of visible litter, 95-100% of total floating marine litter, and more than 50% of litter on the ocean floor. By 2040, scientists estimate that plastic discharges into the sea will double if annual plastic production continues to increase at a rate of 4% and waste management does not radically improve.
“Risks” in tourism, agriculture and fishing
Overall, researchers predict that global warming will pose “serious risks” to important economic sectors such as Summer seaside tourism, agriculture, aquaculture and fishing. Furthermore, looking to the future, they predict an increase in the risks of water shortage.
The report’s authors add that current actions to address environmental issues, climate change adaptation and mitigation are “insufficient” to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and that the the risks of global warming will intensify if transformative actions are not carried out across all sectors, systems and scales.
As they warn, the effectiveness of conservation measures will largely depend on the success of the conservation work. climate change mitigationbut the limits will become increasingly strict as the planet’s temperature rises.
THE MedECC is a independent scientific network which brings together climate and environmental experts from the Mediterranean region. Although not formally linked to governments or political institutions, collaborates with international organizations such as the Union for the Mediterranean (UfM) and the UNEP (United Nations Environment Program) Mediterranean Action Plan, and has financial and logistical support with institutions such as the French Agency for Biodiversity (AFB) and the Union Europeanwho financed some of its flagship projects.
