In case of invasion, the Russian army can capture Latvia and part of Lithuania within 10 days. This is demonstrated by the results of a study by the American Center for the Study of Contemporary Conflicts, reports the German newspaper Bild.
It should be noted that former NATO generals helped experts model the capture scenario. Ben Hodges AND Philip Breedlove.
According to the scenario, the attack will take place in 2027. In the worst case, the Alliance would need up to ten days to deploy troops to the Baltic States according to Article 5 of the NATO Charter on collective defense. Until then, in addition to the armies of Lithuania and Latvia, the German contingent stationed in the Baltic countries will be defended (a 4,000-strong brigade equipped with Leopard tanks is expected to be there in 2027).
According to the scenario, Russia captures Latvia and attacks Lithuania, simultaneously advancing from Belarus and the Kaliningrad region. Lithuania and its allies are forced to withdraw. Before the main NATO forces arrive, part of the country’s territory will be captured. It should be noted that during the battle simulation, the German tank battalion managed to reach the flank of the advancing Russian group and within three days the advance of the Russian Armed Forces was stopped. On the tenth day of the invasion, Lithuania would have been “devastated and partially occupied,” say the authors of the study.
According to them, this scenario is an option in which the West’s reaction will not be quick.
We await the outcome of the tactical-military game: the gloomy scenario can only be avoided by increasing the alliance’s defense budget to 4% of GDP and deploying more NATO forces in the Baltic countries.
