Russian oil continues to flow through the seas even though the West has increased its zeal with its sanctions. As in the game of cat and mouse, every blow by the West to the Russian trade in crude oil and its derivatives is followed by a cunning maneuver on the part of Russia, Moscow takes advantage of all the loopholesfailure or complicity of their geopolitical rivals.
The Kremlin’s latest ruse was the discovery of a new “black spot” in the Mediterranean where to carry out secret oil transfers through the already famous techniques of ship to ship (ship to ship), a dangerous procedure to be able to “filter” sanctioned Russian oil and which carries significant environmental risks, as a spill is more than possible.
With this technique, the oil which travels in what is called the ghost fleet or ghost fleet composed of old tankers reconditioned by Moscow and which travels without Western insurance in order to avoid the ceiling of 60 dollars per barrel of Russian crude oil imposed by the United States and its European partners.
These hidden offshore oil trades are now taking place in a new enclave off the Greek coast after the Greek country decreed military maneuvers who blocked this illicit activity taking place in the Gulf of Laconia.
According to data from analytics company Vortexa, near the islands of Lesbos and Chiosin the Aegean Sea, is currently the place of exchange of approximately one million barrels per month of diesel, fuel oil and other petroleum products. The area became popular just after the Greek army began to carry out maneuvers around the Laconic Gulf.
From Bloomberg They report that these furtive exchanges continue to take place in the Laconic Gulf despite the nearby presence of the Greek army, but that the pace has slowed considerably. Since the Greek navy’s maneuvers did not reach the aforementioned narrow strip of water, this is where these oil “dumps” are now concentrated.
According to information from the American financial agency, transfers ship to ship They have also become common in front of the Italian Port of Augusta (on the eastern coast of Sicily) since May, when the Greek navy began its exercises. Maneuvers which were recently extended until mid-March.
Russia and its ghost fleet explore different corners of the Mediterranean to carry out these dangerous operations. Today it’s Greece, but a few weeks ago it was (still) Spain. Russian oil cargo transferred between ocean tankers near Ceuta in early November, reestablishing this clandestine practice that the Spanish government believed to have stopped. A Suezmax Sakarya-class tanker has left the waters of Ceuta, once a popular destination for transferring Russian oil, after transferring its crude to a larger tanker. The ship disappeared from digital tracking systems for around 60 hours, during which time the dangerous oil transfer operation is believed to have taken place.
No transfers of goods containing Ural crude oil have been made near Ceuta since August 2023, after Spain warned local companies about the practice. However, this transfer has occurred all over the world, from the Eastern Mediterranean to the Gulf of Oman.
Greece again
This is not the first time that the Russian oil trade has found in Greece a unexpected “ally”. Last year, information began to emerge that pointed to the almighty Greek maritime sector (the country is the world’s largest shipowner in terms of deadweight tonnage or safe loading capacity of a ship) as support for the logistics of transporting Russian oil across the world’s seas.
Lured by the possibility of making huge profits after the upheavals in energy markets at the start of the Ukraine war, some Greek shipping companies left their reputational fears behind and decided to continue transporting Russian crude oil despite the strong support of the European Union for the United States in the application of sanctions. Likewise, they have been exceptional sellers of old tankers so that the Kremlin can pursue its goal.
One of the voices that has most insisted on these facts is that of Robin Brooksdirector general of the Institute of International Finance (IIF), who has been denouncing the situation for some time. “Western companies have abandoned Russia en masse, but not the Greek maritime oligarchs, who have moved their ships to help Putin sell his oil around the world. They then fought against the G7 price caps and are now selling their old ships to Putin for a small fee. Why is the EU putting up with this?” lamented the analyst a few months ago.
“It is EU tankers – from Greece – that transport Russian oil and operate Putin’s war machine. The EU has the power to stop this in one fell swoop, plunging Russia into chaos as it struggles to shut down its oil wells,” the economist continued. . only when the US Treasury held firm and by expanding the focus on these shipping companies, trade movements began to decline. But Moscow has continued to find solutions.
The oil export trick
Despite everything, the Russian crude oil exports by sea fell in recent weeks, with shipments from the country’s Baltic ports well below the pace of last month (September). Four-week average flows fell by around 150,000 barrels per day through November 17. This is the largest drop in weekly exports since the beginning of July. However, this decline remains a miragesince the Russian fleet exports in greater quantities, which is even more valuable.
Along with the decline in oil shipments, Bloomberg announced that shipments of refined products reached recent highs, averaging 2.33 million barrels per day during the first 15 days of this month, according to data compiled by Vortexa. This represents around 409,000 barrels, or 21% more than average flows for the same period in October. Average daily volumes so far this month have been the highest since February. Russia exports less oil but sells more refined products for which it gets a higher margin, especially now that the price of crude oil is relatively cheap.
The increase in fuel exports was led by a rebound in diesel and gasoline shipments. Exports of diesel and gasoil rose 23% from the previous monthly average to around 875,000 barrels per day, the highest level since July. Most of the additional barrels are destined for Turkey and Asia. Naphtha shipments increased 50% from the previous monthly average to around 524,000 barrels per day, the highest level since March 2023. Although Asia remains the main destination, more shipments are heading also to Brazil and the United Arab Emirates this month.
Fuel oil exports also increased to 711,000 barrels per day. Exports of raw materials for refineries, such as vacuum diesel, increased 9% to 192,000 barrels per day.
Russia continues to ignore Western sanctions. The Kremlin’s ideas and tricks have no limits, while the enthusiasm of NATO countries to truly prevent Russian oil from crossing the seas seems to be gradually dissipating as the war in Ukraine fades from focus media. Furthermore, the arrival of Donald Trump at the White House This could constitute an important turning point for the conflict and, ultimately, for Russian exports.
