“When the army insists on long -term campaigns, state resources do not reach,” Sun Tzu warns in The art of warField after three years of conflict, The Russian treasury is emptyInflation starts, and morality on the floor. The facts that the Chinese general also predicts in the military agreement of the millennia. The dear campaign of Vladimir Putin on the annexed part of Ukraine and the prevention of what the human drama was already leaving for NATO. More than one million dead Between both parties, according to the study of the Center for International Strategic Research; And a huge economic account for the next generations. Now the US president has added a new problem: Washington will give weapons to Ukraine againField
Russian Minister of Economics, Maxim ReschetnikovHe said at the Economic Forum in St. Petersburg last month that the country is close to the crisis: “The numbers show cooling and the current perception suggests that already We are on the verge of a recession“Governor of the Bank of Russia, Elvira Nabillinawho was next to Reshetnikov, warned that “Resources” for economic growth have endedThe field of these resources belong to “labor, production capacity, import replacement; as well as accumulated resources of the National Social Support Fund and banking capital reserves”.
Trump comes into effect
“When your weapon has no edge, and the cooled passion, your exhausted forces and scattered treasures, neighboring rulers will use your misfortune to action,” San Zi said more than 2500 years ago. Putin is now facing The situation of great danger: The front has been stagnant over the past two years, with shy achievements; Europe continues to support Ukraine financially and militarily, and Trump has exhausted patience.
The change of opinion of the President of the United States, who has just announced that will resume direct military assistance to UkraineThis is a real failure for the Russian president. The Kremlin launched a repeating Soflalu against the separation of the West before the war, inspired by an open dispute between Volodimyr Zelensky and a majority of the American Republican apparatus.
The current tenant of the White House promised in the campaign that he would stop assistance in Kyiv and stop the war. Six months later, rockets and drones continue to fly on both sides of the front while Russia is becoming more and more economically and politically fencedThe field in Syria took a change of regime, as a result of which its military bases of the Mediterranean Sea almost left; In the Sahel, the presence of the African corps was significantly reduced; Iran is weakened in front of the built -in Israel behind the closed support of Washington, and the price of hydrocarbons is at low levels, which reduces Income of Russian energy firmsField
Trump’s renewable help, which can change at any time, since the president of the Republicans usually The last failure for PutinThe field of his dream of victory in Ukraine to more and more active NATO and a stronger European union avoids his hands while Red numbers, refugees and dead They do not stop growing.
By default, inflation and debt
The lack of resources that Nabillina referred to is preparing Economic catastrophe for the countryThe inflation field remains above 10% of the absence of work, which increases the salary spiral and more and more expensive goods from Western sanctions and the general war. Although China became the main client of Russia (Therefore, the governor’s link to “substitution imports”), the Slavic economy is very dependent on the military industry. The war deteriorated interest rates above 20% In recent years. Without growth and with the prices of clouds, Russia is faced with the worst macroeconomic script: StanflationField
This military addiction is very complicated for management in the future world. A High salary of the militaryWhose minimum salary begins in 200,000 rules per month (2100 euros); Ten times more than the minimum wage of the country, they imply a problem after the conflict. The discovery of the economy of war High risk operation This may include the future of Russia as a country.
The high level of inflation caused by the war, the lack of labor from mass chambers, the expulsions of hundreds of thousands of Russian and a bar of free borrowings that encouraged the Kremlin have a financial system against ropes. Banks warn The default wave which can attack the national economy over the next 12 months.
