Until a few weeks ago, neither the government nor its parliamentary partners considered the possibility of having general state budgets for 2025. Today, everyone admits that there is a real possibility, although very weak, to approve them at the beginning of the year. the year. He’s staying the uncertainty over Junts and the path that Carles Puigdemont could take.
In fact, sources from Moncloa explain that Pedro Sanchez He decided to engage in this effort with the conviction that it is the way to save Parliament and bring it as close as possible to spring 2027.
If there were budgets now, the president of the government would have Enough political oxygen to reach the end of 2026 only with an extension in 2025. If there ultimately is none, it will be much more difficult for a full legislature to deal with the accounts approved in the previous one, in this case, in 2023.
This explains why Sánchez rectified and agreed to modify the trajectory of the deficit and delay the entire calendar to postpone the negotiations on the budgets until the congresses of the Junts and the ERC have passed.
This is what he did, even if the news that the government receives within Junts indicates that there is no option for the “pragmatists”, the “ex-convergents” and the “moderates “to be able to beat Puigdemont at this congress. from Together.
“All the fish are sold and the congress will only take place The coronation of Puigdemont“, they explain within the independence party. The government has studied the business environment of Junts and also of some of the leaders furthest from the former president of the Generalitat, and the impression is very negative on the options of change in this party.
According to these sources, Puigdemont is between maintaining his position of extracting concessions from the government, making it clear that he is the one who really supports Parliament, or avoiding approving budgets so as not to find himself without weapons against Sánchez .
Because if there were budgets for 2025, Sánchez would no longer need to approve others next year and, therefore, Junts would lose its ability to pressure. It would no longer be essential. Junts obviously excludes supporting a motion of censure against Alberto Nuñez Feijóo This includes Vox, as this would also cause it to lose its ability to decide Spanish politics.
For the moment, the government has purged its legislative program to relaunch initiatives likely to reunite the investiture bloc, removing those that could weaken it and cause parliamentary defeats.
Objective: more laws
The idea is to prioritize technical standards or standards with an obvious ideological bias. which can be supported by the left and the independence movement. It goes from progressive majoritywhich today turns out to be non-existent, multinational majority.
This is to avoid the image of a government incapable of governing for lack of parliamentary support and to enrich the list of approved laws.
To achieve this goal, regulations were used in which a sufficient bloc had already emerged to approve them, for example the Citizen Security Law or the Gag Law, on which there was already a consensus of everyone except the government. himself.
Moncloa has lifted the red lines that it had maintained since the last legislature regarding this legal reform, knowing that it has guarantees to move it forward with its partners.
A very technical law on the administration of justice, under discussion in Congress and which responds to a transposition of European standards, will also prosper, and this Tuesday the plenary session of Congress will admit for examination a PSOE bill which modifies the organic law. of the right of association to be able to ban entities that glorify Francoism, for example, the Francisco Franco Foundation. This affair also serves to recompose the investiture bloc.
Something similar is happening with the PNV’s proposal to give more judicial control of the activity of the CNIto which the PSOE has joined, knowing that the rest of the parliamentary partners will also do so.
On the other hand, the Government and its partners are aware that it will be much more complicated to implement tax or social regulations.
For example, Yolanda Díaz’s push for the reduction of working hours has been stopped if there is no agreement with employers. Only with the certificate of business support is the vote in favor of the PNV and Junts guaranteed. It is therefore postponed.
Europe Press
There is also no option to address and carry out issues related to fiscal policy. Indeed, there is still no agreement with his parliamentary partners on the future of taxes on banks and energy companies, which expire at the end of the year.
There was also no possibility of agreement with Junts on reforming immigration law to make it easier to transfer migrant minors to other communities. The separatists have already voted against it once in Congress and the government is seeking the vote of the PP to approve it.
It is also not easy for Moncloa to obtain the vote of the Junts on housing measures.
It is for this reason that the government fears that Junts will once again align with the PP and Vox to approve in Congress initiatives linked to economic and social policies closer to the right.
red button
In fact, the PP has launched initiatives such as conciliation and housing measures, among others. In this case, Moncloa has a red button that you can press, which is the right of veto that governments have over legislative proposals this leads to some increase in expenses and a decrease in income.
This route has already been used on numerous occasions by different governments, it does not require argumentation and is invoked just after the qualification of the proposal by the Council, at the start of the parliamentary process.
In Moncloa, the article by The economist titled “Pedro Sánchez remains in power at the expense of Spanish democracy“. And the text, published in one of the media that most touches and interests Sánchez, assures that “his coalition executive governs in a minority at the whim of the radical Catalan and Basque nationalists, and at an increasing price for the quality of the democracy”.. Spanish and its institutions”.
