In January 2017, Donald Trump’s arrival at the White House was marked by the departure of the Paris climate agreement and by the travel ban, the “ban on entry” into American territory for nationals of several Muslim-majority countries (Iran, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria and Yemen). In January 2025, for their return, two major immediate measures are expected: the establishment of additional customs duties on imports and the mass expulsion of immigrants without regular residence permits in the United States. As in 2017, the objective will be to shock, hurt and act within the framework of the prerogatives conferred on the president of the United States. Too bad the courts are interfering in the matter.
As for customs duties, the president has the right to impose them. Gone are the days when this prerogative was the exclusive jurisdiction of Congress. Donald Trump has proposed taxing all imports at least 10%, while those from China would be subject to a 60% tax. Before the vote, French luxury companies made efforts to contact Trump’s team to avoid such sanctions. Nobody knows if the 10% amount will be applied. No one knows whether Canada and Mexico, linked to the United States by a revised free trade agreement under Donald Trump, will be affected. No one knows if China will receive a penalty as high as promised. But no one doubts that Donald Trump will take action, if only to maintain his credibility.
“Donald Trump will impose certain tariffs from day one. Not 100%, but it is in your best interest to activate a serious threat to make it credible. And the more people say it’s a negotiating stance, the more you have to do it. Otherwise, you will appear weak, indecisive and a liar.”deciphered before the elections Adam Posen, president of the transatlantic think tank Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), recalling that Trump’s threat concerns much larger amounts than during his previous term. This policy could be implemented by Republican protectionist Robert Lighthizer, trade representative during Trump’s first term.
What reaction will the United States’ partners have?
According to a study by Mary Lovely and Kimberly Clausing, PIIE researchers, these customs duties would reach the equivalent of around 11% of the US gross domestic product (GDP), compared to 1.8% during the first trade war. These measures would disrupt production chains. They would result in a financial transfer from the poor to the rich, with the former purchasing more imported goods as a percentage of their income. The purchasing power of the poorest 20% of Americans would decrease by 4.2%, while that of middle-income households would decrease by 2.7%. At the same time, Donald Trump should reduce antitrust measures and address the repeated fines imposed by the European Union on big technology companies. In any case, Tim Cook, the president of Apple, complained about this during the election campaign for the Republican candidate.
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