Spain is becoming increasingly steppe-like. At the current rate of global warming, in less than thirty years, the Mediterranean climate that prevails in the Iberian Peninsula will be replaced by another steppe, much drier and more arid, according to calculations by a team from the Polytechnic University of Catalonia presented this Thursday.
If the trend of recent years continues (the study covers the period 1971 to 2022), it is expected that by 2050 there will be a reduction in precipitation of between 14 and 20% compared to current levels.
The study concludes that, if progress is made in the same direction, it is expected that in the near future the dominant climate of the Spanish peninsula and the Balearic Islands will evolve towards a steppe-type climate – classified as cold semi-arid – which will cause the expansion of “brown” Spain.
More than 40% of the territory will probably move from a temperate climate to a dry climate, with a predominance of steppe or even desert Spain, which confirms the trend towards a progressive decrease in precipitation. The typically Mediterranean climate would go from 24.43% of the peninsular and insular territory in the reference period 1971-2000 to 10.13% in the period 2040-2060.
The study prepared by the Center for Land Policy and Evaluation (CPSV) and entitled Spain: Towards a drier and warmer climate? (Spain: towards a drier and warmer climate?) analyses the evolution of temperatures and precipitation in the Spanish peninsula and the Balearic archipelago over half a century and makes a projection of the peninsular-Balearic climate until 2050.
Over almost the entire territory, the association between progressive warming and the trend towards reduced precipitation is highly significant (the study demonstrates this with a 95% confidence level).
More warming than in the average Mediterranean area
The temperature in mainland Spain and the Balearic Islands has increased by 3.27º, a figure higher than the world average (1.19ºC) and the average for the Mediterranean area (1.58ºC). We now have 12 more torrid nights on average in the territory compared to 1971 and, in specific areas, such as the southern plateau, the Guadalquivir and Ebro valleys, as well as on the Mediterranean coast, there are 30 more nights than in the early 1970s. At the same time, summer days have increased by an average of 36 days throughout Spain, as have heat waves (which last 3 to 9 days longer). Most of the territory is showing a clear trend towards drought.
Nearly two more months of summer and longer dry spells
By 2050, the average temperature in the country is expected to increase by 1.43º compared to recent years (2013-2022). Summer days (SU) would be extended by 22.7 and tropical nights by 7.2 nights on average throughout Spain compared to this last period, which would mean an increase of almost two additional summer months compared to the period linked to 1971.
For their part, average annual precipitation in the Spanish peninsula and the Balearic Islands in 2050 will be well below 500 mm/year (417 mm), or 126.3 mm less than in the period 1971-2000. Drought periods will be longer, but specific extreme precipitation events will be more intense.
