Historically, September has been one of the months in which bulls have suffered the most on the trading floor. In bags in general and in Ibex 35 in particular. Not because of the number of times this month has ended with a negative overall balance, but because of the sharp drops that have been seen – especially in the case of the Spanish selection – throughout the 30 days that make it up.
This is why, even though over the last thirty years the monthly balance for September has been divided equally between bullfight And bear (15 and 15), The average shows that this month there are, on average, decreases close to 0.5% over the last three decades.. And even worse are the statistics of the indices this month across the Atlantic, where, for example, the S&P 500 has historically recorded its worst performance.
This behavior is very different from that recorded this year by the national selection. From the first moment of the month, the Ibex 35 is noted profits approaching 2.5% and in recent days it has managed to stand out from the behavior of the rest of the major European stock markets and set new highs for the year – something that the rest of its continental and North American counterparts are far from reaching.
And we must not forget that statistically, one of the quietest periods for bulls is now, the last quarter of the year. The average of the last 30 years also reflects the fact that The months of October, November and December mostly leave profits in the Ibex 35. A trend that continues in January and February as well as in April – March presents itself as a kind of temporary exception in the trend of bullfight-.
In this context, Joan Cabrero, analyst and strategist of eco-retailer calls for remaining calm and operationally cautious, especially “when I detect that This force is exclusive to the Ibex 35 selective“, since the Ibex Medium cap is still 6% from its highs of the year and the Ibex Small caps at 8%.”If we want to rely on sustainable increases, the increase must not be exclusive to the Spanish index” he explains.
At the end of next Friday, it will be interesting to see if the Ibex 35 manages to stay above June highs in the 11,469 points. “Anything else would be a clear sign of weakness,” believes the Ecotrader expert. In any case, there will be no technical evidence suggesting bullish exhaustion until the Ibex 35 fills the gap it opened upwards since the 11,278 and lose the support of the 11,138 points.
Stock markets in the hands of central banks
Whether or not the Ibex 35 (and the rest of the major European stock markets) continues to bullish for the rest of the month will be heavily influenced by the decisions taken this week by two of the most important central banks on the planet, the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan.
Both will act on monetary policy in the coming days and whether or not the stock markets maintain the upward momentum of recent weeks depends largely on their actions. This is why the main stock markets of the planet evolved yesterday with cautious and mixed tone in the early stages of the week.
In Asia, The Nikkei is leading the declines in recent days. It has been down more than 6% over the last nine sessions.. And if Japan’s central bank governor, Ueda, confirms the interest rate hike that the market is already anticipating, the dollar/yen cross and the Nikkei will likely come under renewed selling pressure.
