Donald Trump is set to officially return to the White House. In an electoral contest marked by polarization and uncertainty, the Republican candidate claimed victory in the key states of North Carolina and Georgia, a breakthrough that significantly reduced Kamala Harris’s chances of victory in the race for the presidency of the United States.
Additionally, Trump would have won in Pennsylvania, a historically decisive state in defining elections. The market’s reaction was not long in coming. Futures contracts anticipate strong gains on Wall Street and more moderate advances on European stock markets, while the dollar is soaring and bitcoin is reaching all-time highs.
The increases on Wall Street were around 2%. The future of Dow Jones they advanced by 2.03%; those of S&P5001.78%, and those of Nasdaq1001.69%. The future of Russell 2000index in which medium and small American companies are listed, increased by 3.9%.
The Spanish
Trump’s victory is starting to be clear and the Vix index, known as the fear index, fell: it fell to 15.98 points, after having remained around 20 points in recent days.
The reaction on European markets is more reserved. “The possible imposition of tariff policies under the Trump administrationwhich have already been mentioned during previous campaigns, are causing concern in Europe,” underline the IG analysts.
The same experts warn that “if large customs tariffs are put in place, there is a risk of a trade war breaking out which would directly affect European exports, particularly in strategic sectors such as automobiles and technology.”
This problem was reflected in the Old Continent’s indexes, whose futures recorded declines for much of the morning. However, before the opening, they increased.
The positive trend was confirmed after the bell on Wednesday and the German Dax gained 0.81%; the French Cac 400.67%; the British FTSE 1000.81%; the Italian Eb0.77%. Only the Ibex 35 stands out, which, affected by banks and energy companies, fell by 0.92%.
The Republicans have regained control of the Senate (upper house of the United States Congress), but it is still unclear who will control the House of Representatives (lower house), “although it is not excluded that the Republicans will. also do.” since Trump seems “he will win in the popular vote”, they indicate from Link Securities.
In the signature, they emphasize that “The best-case scenario is a divided Congresswhich prevents any candidate from adopting measures that cause fiscal imbalances greater than those already present in this economy.
“Markets are not only positioning for a comfortable Trump victory in the Electoral College, but also for a Republican-controlled Congress, which is key to determining the ability of the new president to impose policy changes within the US governments”, underline the Ebury analysts.
The dollar is rising
They add that “we are seeing massive sell-offs in emerging market currencies as investors overlook rising U.S. tariffs, elevated geopolitical risks and greater global uncertainty under the Trump presidency.”
The fall of the euro was 1.83%, to 1.072 greenbacks. This may be the worst session for the community currency since March 2020. Conversely, the dollar index, which measures the evolution of the American currency compared to the main world currencies, increased by 1.57%.
Bitcoin, at its highest
Bitcoin reached new all-time highs on Wednesday. The world’s leading cryptocurrency rose above $75,000 early in the morning, although the advance was later reduced.
Analyst Javier Cabrera explains that Trump’s support for Bitcoin The campaign for the US presidential election has been positive for the cryptocurrency and its victory “could provide a boost”.
Gold and oil
“The strengthening of the dollar has put pressure on gold and oil,” they say at IG.
Gold, considered a safe haven, It fell 1.44% to $2,704 per ounce. At the same time, Brent oil, The benchmark variant in Europe fell 1.26% to $74.6 per barrel. U.S.-grade West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell 1.14% to $71.19.
