Orange juice price increases have been recurring news in recent years. The raw material is traded on international markets and is one of the most expensive in recent years. In 2024, for example, it is the third basic resource whose price has increased the most, just behind cocoa and coffee, and it has already increased by 50% since the first day of January. The problem is that the world’s main harvests, in Brazil, were already the worst since 1933, before a succession of hurricanes in the United States, another major producer, further deteriorated production prospects. In Spain, the rise in international prices is reflected in consumer prices and sparks complaints from farmers who, according to data from the Ministry of Agriculture, are suffering a drop in orange prices.
The crops used by orange juice producers are going through cursed years. Brazil is the largest producer of this juice on the entire planet and represents 70% of all global production of this drink, according to data collected. Bloomberg. With total control of the global juice supply, what happens during the Brazilian harvest affects the prices consumers end up paying, and The last few years have been a real nightmare for crops in this South American country.
Production problems are so severe that prices have risen to levels undreamed of a few years ago: on average, since data on juice prices began to be collected on the international market in 1967, the price was $1.2 per pound. Prices have been skyrocketing since 2021, and it’s over quadrupling the price of the raw material on the international market, up to 4.7 dollars per pound at which they are currently trading.
Concentrated juices, frozen or fresh
To understand what is happening in the juice market, it is important to distinguish the types of products that exist. When the juice is pressed, the water content can be removed and converted into a denser, more concentrated liquid. And there is also frost.
“Frozen and concentrated can last for years,” explains José Vicente Andreu, president of Asaja Alicante. Andreu confirms how “international market prices are set by these two guys, which last a long time”, and emphasizes that “we have had 4 or 5 years of decline in production and juice reserves are running out”. If you are an industrialist and you want to buy juice at the market, there is not a liter available: everything is compromised“.
Due to the shortage that currently exists in the international market, soft drink manufacturers, who mainly use this type of juice to make their products, are asking to be able to mix it with other fruits, such as tangerine, grapefruit or grapes.
On the other hand, in some countries, such as Spain, production focuses on fresh juices, which do not last long before spoiling. “In Spain we make fresh juice, pasteurize it and consume it in a short time. And if it is refrigerated, which is of the highest quality, even more so. It is the one that is put in a glass bottle, or transparent, and lasts three days,” explains Andreu.
Brazil dominates the concentrated juice market
Brazilian domination of the orange juice market is total, but the country of Rio mainly focuses on the production of concentrated or frozen juices. More than 1.1 million tons of orange juice were produced domestically last year, more than the rest of the major producers combined: Mexico, the second largest, produced 155,000 tons; The United States 105,000 tonnes, the European Union 47,000 and South Africa 31,000 tonnes, according to data published by Statista. These are significant figures which confirm that the evolution of the price of juice on the international market is directly linked to the Brazilian harvest.
“Concentrated juices are used for soft drinks and this is what marks the futures market. If this increases, the fresh refrigerated juice is infected,” explains Andreu. This relationship occurs, as economist Javier Santacruz explains, due to imports of oranges produced in Spain. “What is bought abroad is orange, at several times of the year, in regions like South Africa or Brazil, and the rise in prices due to poor harvests ends up affect the price of Spanish juice”, confirms the economist.
Today, two elements are preventing Brazilian and American farmers from breathing. First of all, A citrus disease has devastated crops in recent years, gradually deteriorating the quantity produced in Brazil and making it increasingly difficult to increase the production of orange juice. Second, hurricanes have occurred in recent years with particular strength and intensity and have also helped spoil the already poor harvests of another major commodity producer, the United States.
Due to the plant disease, at the beginning of last summer, the analysis center Fundecitrus highlighted that Brazilian production this year would reach the lowest levels recorded in more than 30 years. Climatic conditions have not calmed down in 2024, and a harvest well below what was usual before this five-year period was repeated. According to company data, Brazilian juice warehouses near historic lows for four consecutive yearsdue to poor harvests, which eventually caused commodity prices to skyrocket.
The effects of climate change are seriously affecting crops across the planet. Events like the last drop of cold in Valencia are a good example of this and are noticed in other regions of the planet, such as the United States.
According to data released last Friday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the Florida orange harvest forecast for 2024 is expected to be 16% lower than in 2023, and will reach just 15 million boxes, the worst since 1933. These Figures, in fact, did not take into account the damage caused by the passage of the last hurricane, Milton, which will probably further reduce the forecasts. In recent years, there has been a succession of unusual hurricanes of greater intensity than usual, which have contributed to penalizing harvests in Florida, a region which usually bears the impact of the hurricane season in the Atlantic.
The problem in Spain: low prices for the farmer and high prices at the supermarket
The increase in orange juice prices in international markets is also reflected in the prices consumers pay for oranges and juices in Spanish supermarkets. According to data from the National Institute of Statistics (INE), the annual variation in juice prices oscillated between 21% and 15% throughout 2024, depending on the month taken as a reference.
Asaja Alicante, the Association of Young Farmers of the region, explains this week in a statement how “the price of a liter of juice has doubled compared to last year, although it is one of the products of basis for a healthy diet. “They pay up to 4 euros per liter in Spanish supermarket chains, and if they want to buy it freshly squeezed, the price rises to 6 euros per liter in the bottle, a total disproportion,” he emphasizes.
Today, the variety of prices for 100% pressed juices is high: from 1.74 euros to buy a liter of white label juice at Mercadona, to 4.5 euros to buy at El Corte Inglés.
Santacruz explains how “at the same time that a good part of the harvest remains on the tree, There are times of the year when you have to import, from Brazil, the United States or South Africa.. It is widely imported throughout the year, and during the harvest, when Spanish oranges enter the market, the price is reduced and the traders who sell them during the harvest do not pay”, emphasizes the economist.
According to data released by the Ministry of Agriculture, The orange varieties for which they collect price trends from farmers are paid lower and lower: Navel oranges fall by 16%, to 19 euros per 100 kilos; those of the White Group fell by 24.8%, to 25.55 euros per 100 kilos, the same price, and with a similar drop, to that suffered by the Salustiana variety.
These prices are paid in a relatively negative context for the Spanish harvest. According to data published by the ministry, the 2024/2025 harvest amounts to 2.97 million tonnes of sweet orange. Although this figure represents an increase of 8.8% from the previous harvest, it is 8% lower than the average of the last five years. And this decline is not limited to oranges: citrus fruits, in general, have had harvests below 6 million tons for two consecutive years, and the ministry predicts that this will be repeated this year, where, between 2018 and 2022, it It has been common to find harvests of more than 7 million tonnes.
