The confidence of those who expected a defeat of Donald Trump began to collapse shortly after four in the morning Spanish time, seeing that almost 50% of the votes were counted Pennsylvaniaone of the decisive States, passed from the bench of Kamala Harris to that of the former president. It was at that moment that New York Timesaware that two other key states –Georgia And North Carolina– had already fallen on Trump’s side, he then gave him a chance of victory greater than 70%.
“The Europeans are going to be very scared tomorrow morning,” he commented shortly after on the social network. Ian Bremmerwell-known American political scientist and founder of a consulting firm specializing in geopolitics called Eurasia, in reference to Trump’s isolationist drive. A few minutes later, he added the following: “Putin: winner; Iran: screwed; China: nervous.
Putin: winner
Iran: screwed
China: nervous– Ian Bremmer (@ianbremmer) November 6, 2024
Immediately afterwards, and as if it were a prophecy, Wisconsin, Michigan And Arizonathree other key territories, were painted red on the maps. In total: that of the seven pivotal states which were going to decide the elections according to their camp, at four thirty in the morning, there remained only one tendency to adopt, the most irrelevant of all: Snowfall. And if he did not do so, it is quite simply because at that time he had not yet started the counting. Until then, the needle of Times It was already at 80%.
Even though the former president’s supposed victory – as of this writing, it is not yet official – was a possibility considered by every reliable analyst, many Americans did not expect going to bed with Trump leading in virtually every controversy. territories.
While we wait for the pundits to do their job and explain the dynamics that drove so many votes to the Republican Party’s side, it doesn’t hurt to present, as a clue, some of the data left behind from election night.
new YorkFor example. The city, considered a stronghold of the Democratic Party except for its forgotten district, Staten Island, saw how, even when the Republican Party candidate lost, he performed much better than expected in Brooklyn, the Bronx and in his native Queens. Thanks to them – and to the newspaper push New York Post– Trump would have managed to cross, at the time of writing, the 40% barrier statewide.
The Latino vote, to cite a second example. According to the magazine National reviewa substantial part of them would have opted for the former president. Associated Press confirmed the trend put forward by the conservative magazine by asserting that half of Latino voters would have supported Harris in these elections. To put it in context: four years ago, six out of ten of them positioned themselves with Joe Biden. To show the flood, here are the results of Florida: a state in which Latinos constitute the largest minority and in which Trump has further increased the advantage gained in the 2020 election.
Even the black population, again according to studies carried out at the release by the team of Associated Pressshowed some disaffection towards Harris; If 9 out of 10 people voted for Biden during his time, tonight, 8 out of 10 people chose the Democratic Party.
In total, and while waiting for Trump’s victory to be confirmed once definitively ruled out by Harris’ electoral calculator, which seems to have confirmed this meeting with the polls, this is what a number of surveys published in recent years anticipated. last months: American society remains extremely divided.
It remains to be seen whether this gap will decrease or increase over the next four years. Most experts consulted by the American media are not overly optimistic.
