METROichel Barnier may not be who we think. Behind the image he wants to give himself, that of a right-wing leader willing to bravely cut public spending to save the country, lies the first budget framework completed by the new Prime Minister and consulted by the world draw another profile. The man of rigor should also be the man of a spectacular increase in taxes. According to this document, tax increases will represent more than 60% of the financial consolidation effort planned for 2025 compared to 2024.
An austerity plan of 60 billion euros in one year, including 40 billion in spending reductions and 20 billion in additional taxes. These three figures, massive and impressive, are at the center of Michel Barnier’s communication for the 2025 budget, which must be presented on October 10. The Prime Minister repeated it on Thursday, October 3 on France 2: “In the effort we are going to make to reduce the debt, 60 billion, there will be a reduction of two thirds of public spending. And it’s going to be very difficult. »
On Friday, he further dramatized the issue to justify the “Difficult decisions” future : “This braking is essential, otherwise we will head directly towards a financial crisis,” he said during a trip to Cournon-sur-Auvergne (Puy-de-Dôme).
“Doing well with little”
These three key figures correspond to as many political messages. One, the unprecedented scale of the” effort “ announced is proportional to the deficit that the new government inherits, a situation that “extremely serious” which Michel Barnier says was ” surprised “. Secondly, as a man attached to budgetary seriousness, Matignon’s new host intends to devote most of his energies to finally addressing public spending, to “doing well with little”, Following the teachings of Charles de Gaulle cited in his general policy speech, even “better with less”, as he said in Auvergne. Thirdly, it is only in a subsidiary way, “exceptional and temporary”, who decides to increase certain taxes. Future increases are in no way an “fiscal shock”, he assured on France 2.
To reach these impressive 60 billion euros, Michel Barnier reasons by comparing two scenarios. On the one hand, what would happen in 2025 if measures are not taken to correct the course: the public deficit could then increase to 7% of the gross domestic product (GDP). On the other hand, what the government aims for is a deficit of 5% of GDP at most. Going from the “trend scenario” of 7% to the target of 5% would require an effort of 2 points of GDP, or around 60 billion euros.
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