Could the next German government accept debt, a word so loaded with meaning in German that it means both indebtedness and guilt? Friedrich Merz, conservative candidate of the CDU-CSU for the legislative elections of February 23, 2025 and probably the next chancellor, has shown himself in recent days to be open to the idea of a reform of the “debt brake”constitutional provision traditionally respected by German conservatives and which limits the budget deficit to 0.35% of gross domestic product (GDP), excluding the effects of the economic situation.
This mechanism, which in itself symbolizes all the German rigor in matters of public finances, is the subject of recurring criticism, which has become more pronounced in recent years. Held responsible for chronic underinvestment in the country’s dilapidated infrastructure, it is now also ridiculed for its effects on the slow pace of German rearmament as war is at Europe’s doorstep. European countries also see it as one of the obstacles to the restart of the Old Continent, of which the German economy is historically the engine, and threatened by the next presidency of Donald Trump on the other side of the Atlantic. German debt, which represents 60% of GDP, is, in fact, one of the lowest among the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).
Merz no longer closes the door to the idea of reforming this tool introduced in 2009 after the subprime mortgage crisis. “The debt brake is a technical issue, we can respond to it one way or another”declared, on Wednesday, November 13, during a conference organized by the newspaper South German Zeitung. Although this mechanism is addressed in article 115 of the Constitution, “ yesOnly the first nineteen articles of our Fundamental Law are immutable; Of course, we can discuss everything else.”
Before explaining: “If the result leads us to spend even more money on consumption and social policy, then the answer is no. » On the other hand, “If it is important for investments, if it is important for progress, if it is important for future generations, then the answer may be different”. Other statements in this regard have been made in various media.
An “inevitable” reform
This spectacular change of course by a leader who was still defending this golden rule tooth and nail in July can be explained by both political and economic reasons. If Merz, 69, has every chance of becoming the next chancellor according to polls, he will probably have to deal with an ally, knowing that a two-thirds majority in the Bundestag and the Bundesrat conditions any reform. “The CDU will also need money if it enters the governmentanalyzes Thomas Biebricher, professor of political science at the Goethe University in Frankfurt. And if he wants to form a coalition with the Social Democrats and/or the Greens, debt brake reform will be inevitable. »
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